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Primera Nacional, round 34 · Saturday, 17 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio El Gigante del Norte

Gimnasia y Tiro — Atlanta

Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
Gimnasia y Tiro50%
Draw29%
Atlanta21%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Gimnasia y Tiro to win (50%), came true.

Gimnasia y Tiro are clear favourites: 50% against 21% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 45%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Gimnasia y Tiro are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Gimnasia y Tiro are 72 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Atlanta: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Gimnasia y Tiro 1 win, Atlanta 1, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gimnasia y Tiro — Atlanta What is xG?1.4–0.8
Gimnasia y Tiro not to lose79%
Atlanta not to lose50%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes45%
Both teams to score: no55%
Total over 2.542%
Total under 2.558%

Match events

  1. 15′Fabricio Rojas · Gimnasia y Tiro1:0
  2. 29′Braian Rivero · Atlanta1:1
  3. 36′Rodrigo Sosa · Atlanta
  4. 39′Manuel Guanini · Gimnasia y Tiro
  5. 61′Franco Sivetti · Gimnasia y Tiro
  6. 66′Tomás Rojas · Atlanta
  7. 76′Tomás Rojas · Atlanta
  8. 77′Juan Capano · Gimnasia y Tiro2:1
  9. 93′Juan Capano · Gimnasia y Tiro3:1
  10. 94′Gabriel Díaz · Gimnasia y Tiro
  11. 94′Dylan Argüello · Atlanta
Substitutions (9)
  1. 62′Adolfo Tallura ↔ Juan Oviedo · Gimnasia y Tiro
  2. 62′Lautaro Gordillo ↔ Nicolás Contín · Gimnasia y Tiro
  3. 62′Jonás Aguirre ↔ Rubén Villarreal · Gimnasia y Tiro
  4. 68′Jeremías Puch ↔ Francisco Romero · Atlanta
  5. 74′Ivo Facundo Chaves ↔ Tiago Banega · Gimnasia y Tiro
  6. 74′Juan Capano ↔ Juan Rocca · Gimnasia y Tiro
  7. 77′Franco Cáceres ↔ Braian Rivero · Atlanta
  8. 77′Dylan Argüello ↔ Rodrigo Sosa · Atlanta
  9. 87′Gonzalo Miranda ↔ Martín García · Atlanta

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Gimnasia y Tiro

  1. GKFederico Cosentino
  2. DFManuel Guanini
  3. DFJuan Oviedo62′
  4. DFGabriel Díaz
  5. DFRubén Villarreal62′
  6. MFTiago Banega74′
  7. MFNicolás Rinaldi
  8. MFFranco Sivetti
  9. FWNicolás Contín62′
  10. FWJuan Rocca74′
  11. FWFabricio Rojas
Came on (5)
  1. FWLautaro Gordillo28′
  2. DFAdolfo Tallura28′
  3. MFJuan Capano16′
  4. MFJonás Aguirre28′
  5. DFIvo Facundo Chaves16′

Atlanta

  1. GKJuan Rago
  2. DFMartín García87′
  3. DFRodrigo Sosa77′
  4. DFRodrigo Moreira
  5. DFTomás Rojas
  6. MFFrancisco Romero68′
  7. MFTomás Castro
  8. MFBraian Rivero77′
  9. FWIgnacio Rodríguez
  10. FWAlejandro Quintana
  11. FWFederico Álvarez
Came on (4)
  1. MFFranco Cáceres13′
  2. DFDylan Argüello13′
  3. FWGonzalo Miranda3′
  4. MFJeremías Puch22′

Form

Gimnasia y Tiro

  • 11.10away · Gimnasia Jujuy2:2
  • 05.10away · San Martín de Tucumán0:1
  • 28.09Atlético Rafaela1:0
  • 20.09away · Agropecuario0:1
  • 12.09Tristán Suárez0:0

Atlanta

  • 11.10San Martín de Tucumán1:0
  • 04.10away · Atlético Rafaela3:2
  • 27.09Agropecuario1:0
  • 21.09away · Tristán Suárez0:0
  • 12.09Atlético Güemes2:0

Head to head

  • 31.05.2026Atlanta — Gimnasia y Tiro1:1
  • 27.09.2025Gimnasia y Tiro — Atlanta2:2
  • 24.05.2025Atlanta — Gimnasia y Tiro1:0
  • 28.07.2024Gimnasia y Tiro — Atlanta1:0
  • 12.03.2024Atlanta — Gimnasia y Tiro1:1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →