Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
Gravelines — Valenciennes
Model prediction and result
0:2Came true
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Valenciennes to win (54%), came true.
Valenciennes are clear favourites: 54% against 22% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Valenciennes are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Valenciennes are 117 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gravelines — Valenciennes What is xG? | 1.1–1.8 | |
| Gravelines not to lose | 46% | |
| Valenciennes not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
Form
- 14.01away · Le Mans1:1
- 22.12away · Thionville Lusitanos2:2
- 30.11Neuilly-sur-Marne4:3
- 16.11away · Arras2:0
- 26.10away · Croix3:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →