Paraguayan Primera Division · Saturday, 7 November, 23:00 (UTC+3)

Guaraní — Olimpia

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Model prediction for 7 November

Guaraní26%

Draw30%

Olimpia44%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Olimpia are slightly stronger: 44% against 26%, draw 30%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

By the strength ratings Olimpia are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
In recent matches the betting market rated Olimpia higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

Olimpia: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Guaraní 2 wins, Olimpia 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Guaraní — Olimpia What is xG?		1.0–1.3
Guaraní not to lose		56%
Olimpia not to lose		74%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		43%
Total under 2.5		57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Guaraní
Guaraní goals
Olimpia goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Guaraní	Olimpia
Goals scored per match	1.2	1.9
Goals conceded per match	0.7	0.5
xG per match	0.00	0.00
Opponents’ xG	0.00	0.00
Shots	14.5	19.0
On target	4.8	6.5
Corners	5.7	5.1
Cards	1.8	3.1
Possession, %	50	57

Averages per match: Guaraní — the last 10, Olimpia — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Guaraní

31.102 de Mayo1:0
23.10away · Rubio Ñú2:0
17.10Nacional (PAR)0:2
12.10away · Libertad2:2
03.10Sportivo San Lorenzo1:1

Olimpia

01.11away · Cerro Porteño2:0
25.10away · Sportivo Ameliano3:2
18.102 de Mayo3:0
11.10away · Rubio Ñú0:0
07.10Nacional (PAR)1:1

Head to head

03.09.2026Olimpia — Guaraní1:1
22.03.2026Guaraní — Olimpia0:2
26.01.2026Olimpia — Guaraní2:1
26.10.2025Olimpia — Guaraní1:3
10.08.2025Guaraní — Olimpia4:0

Full record: 15 meetings →

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →