Bundesliga, round 9 · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)
Hamburger SV — Borussia Mönchengladbach
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 6 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Hamburger SV 37%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 33%, draw 30%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Hamburger SV are 111 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Hamburger SV — No. 13, 6 pts; Borussia Mönchengladbach — No. 18, 0 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 5 defeats in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: Hamburger SV 0 wins, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hamburger SV — Borussia Mönchengladbach What is xG? | 1.6–1.5 | |
| Hamburger SV not to lose | 67% | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Hamburger SV
- Hamburger SV goals
- Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Hoffenheim3:2
- 19.091. FC Köln2:1
- 13.09away · RB Leipzig0:5
- 06.09Mainz 050:5
- 29.08away · Borussia Dortmund0:2
- 11.10away · 1. FC Köln1:2
- 19.09Mainz 053:4
- 12.09away · Freiburg0:5
- 05.09Elversberg3:4
- 29.08away · RB Leipzig0:3
Head to head
- 17.01.2026Hamburger SV — Borussia Mönchengladbach0:0
- 24.08.2025Borussia Mönchengladbach — Hamburger SV0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | -10 | 6 |
| 14 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 17, Relegation | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | -11 | 0 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →