Ghana Premier League, round 7 · Saturday, 17 October, (UTC+3)
Heart of Lions — Berekum Chelsea
Model prediction and result
0:2Missed
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Heart of Lions to win (58%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 58% fails in about 42 matches out of 100 on average.
Heart of Lions are clear favourites: 58% against 18% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Heart of Lions are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Heart of Lions are 54 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Heart of Lions 2 wins, Berekum Chelsea 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Heart of Lions — Berekum Chelsea What is xG? | 1.5–0.7 | |
| Heart of Lions not to lose | 82% | |
| Berekum Chelsea not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
Match events
- 39′Dramani Awuah · Berekum Chelsea0:1
- 69′Paul Agyei · Berekum Chelsea0:2
Form
- 11.10away · Medeama SC1:3
- 04.10Ashanti Gold3:2
- 27.09away · Young Apostles2:1
- 19.09All Blacks0:0
- 13.09away · Asante Kotoko SC1:2
- 11.10Debibi3:0
- 04.10away · Holy Stars0:1
- 27.09Vision FC1:1
- 20.09away · Port City1:2
- 13.09Dreams FC3:1
Head to head
- 15.02.2026Berekum Chelsea — Heart of Lions2:1
- 09.11.2025Heart of Lions — Berekum Chelsea1:0
- 13.04.2025Berekum Chelsea — Heart of Lions1:0
- 10.11.2024Heart of Lions — Berekum Chelsea1:0
- 16.06.2024Berekum Chelsea — Heart of Lions2:2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →