Nigeria NPFL, round 14 · Saturday, 21 November, 18:00 (UTC+3)

Ikorodu City — Kano Pillars

Model prediction for 21 November

Ikorodu City64%

Draw22%

Kano Pillars14%

Model estimate at 08:25 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Ikorodu City are clear favourites: 64% against 14% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 41%.

Why

By the strength ratings Ikorodu City are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Ikorodu City are 72 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Ikorodu City — No. 13, 14 pts; Kano Pillars — No. 4, 18 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
Last 4 meetings: Ikorodu City 2 wins, Kano Pillars 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ikorodu City — Kano Pillars What is xG?		1.7–0.7
Ikorodu City not to lose		86%
Kano Pillars not to lose		36%
No draw		78%
Both teams to score: yes		41%
Both teams to score: no		59%
Total over 2.5		42%
Total under 2.5		58%

91 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Ikorodu City
Ikorodu City goals
Kano Pillars goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

Form

Ikorodu City

31.10away · Doma United2:2
25.10Shooting Stars2:2
18.10away · Niger Tornadoes1:2
10.10Kwara United2:0
04.10away · Rivers United FC0:2

Kano Pillars

01.11Nasarawa United2:0
25.10away · Warri Wolves FC0:0
18.10Katsina United1:0
11.10away · Plateau United0:4
07.10away · Shooting Stars0:0

Head to head

12.04.2026Ikorodu City — Kano Pillars3:0
24.11.2025Kano Pillars — Ikorodu City2:1
29.01.2025Ikorodu City — Kano Pillars4:1
08.09.2024Kano Pillars — Ikorodu City3:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3	Bendel Insurance	10	6	0	4	18–15	+3	18
4	Kano Pillars	11	4	6	1	14–11	+3	18
5	Nasarawa United	11	5	2	4	11–10	+1	17
12	Doma United	10	4	3	3	13–13	0	15
13	Ikorodu City	11	3	5	3	15–13	+2	14
14	Warri Wolves FC	11	3	4	4	7–8	-1	13

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →