Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Independiente del Valle — Universidad Católica (ECU)
Model prediction and result
0:0Missed
In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Independiente del Valle to win (59%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 59% fails in about 41 matches out of 100 on average.
Independiente del Valle are clear favourites: 59% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Independiente del Valle are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Independiente del Valle are 253 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Independiente del Valle 3 wins, Universidad Católica (ECU) 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Independiente del Valle — Universidad Católica (ECU) What is xG? | 2.0–1.1 | |
| Independiente del Valle not to lose | 82% | |
| Universidad Católica (ECU) not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
Match events
- 26′Mauricio Alonso · Universidad Católica (ECU)
- 47′Daniel Clavijo · Universidad Católica (ECU)
- 51′Youri Ochoa · Independiente del Valle
- 62′José Fajardo · Universidad Católica (ECU)
- 72′Jerónimo Cacciabue · Universidad Católica (ECU)
Substitutions (9)
- 63′Hugo Quintana ↔ Youri Ochoa · Independiente del Valle
- 64′Carlos González ↔ Djorkaeff Reasco · Independiente del Valle
- 76′Emerson Pata ↔ Steven Góngora · Independiente del Valle
- 76′Júnior Sornoza ↔ Ronald Briones · Independiente del Valle
- 82′Jimmy Evans ↔ Mauricio Alonso · Universidad Católica (ECU)
- 82′Facundo Martínez ↔ Jerónimo Cacciabue · Universidad Católica (ECU)
- 87′Edwin Quintero ↔ Matías Perelló · Independiente del Valle
- 93′Álex Rodríguez ↔ Mauro Díaz · Universidad Católica (ECU)
- 93′Luis Moreno ↔ Daniel Clavijo · Universidad Católica (ECU)
Match statistics
Independiente del ValleUniversidad Católica (ECU)
- 46Possession, %54
- 12Shots10
- 4On target1
- 1Big chances0
- 8Corners3
- 9Fouls12
- 2Offsides0
- 1Yellow cards4
- 0Red cards0
Lineups
Independiente del Valle
- GKAldair Quintana6.9
- DFJhon Espinoza7.5
- DFGustavo Cortéz7.7
- DFMateo Carabajal (C)6.7
- DFJuan Viacava7.2
- MFJhegson Méndez7.9
- MFMatías Perelló87′6.9
- MFSteven Góngora76′6.6
- FWDjorkaeff Reasco64′6.0
- FWRonald Briones76′7.1
- FWYouri Ochoa63′6.5
Came on (5)
- FWCarlos González26′6.3
- MFHugo Quintana27′6.0
- MFJúnior Sornoza14′6.3
- FWEmerson Pata14′6.0
- MFEdwin Quintero3′
Universidad Católica (ECU)
- GKJohan Lara7.3
- DFLuis Cangá7.3
- DFJosé García6.8
- DFGregori Anangonó7.4
- DFEddy Mejía7.0
- MFJerónimo Cacciabue82′6.9
- MFDaniel Clavijo (C)89′6.3
- MFMauro Díaz89′7.0
- FWJosé Fajardo6.0
- FWAzarías Londoño6.8
- FWMauricio Alonso82′6.2
Came on (4)
- FWJimmy Evans8′
- DFLuis Moreno1′
- MFÁlex Rodríguez1′
- MFFacundo Martínez8′
Form
- 17.10away · CSD Macará0:1
- 10.10Aucas2:1
- 18.09away · Flamengo1:1
- 14.09away · Libertad (ECU)3:2
- 11.09Flamengo0:2
- 19.10away · Barcelona SC1:1
- 11.10CSD Macará0:1
- 21.09away · LDU de Quito1:2
- 15.09Orense2:1
- 07.09away · Delfín1:0
Head to head
- 29.08.2026Independiente del Valle — Universidad Católica (ECU)2:2
- 02.05.2026Universidad Católica (ECU) — Independiente del Valle2:3
- 15.12.2025Universidad Católica (ECU) — Independiente del Valle0:1
- 09.11.2025Independiente del Valle — Universidad Católica (ECU)0:2
- 29.06.2025Universidad Católica (ECU) — Independiente del Valle0:3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →