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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)

Juventud de las Piedras — Club Atletico Peñarol

Model prediction and result

0:0Missed
Juventud de las Piedras23%
Draw29%
Club Atletico Peñarol49%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Club Atletico Peñarol to win (49%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 49% fails in about 51 matches out of 100 on average.

Club Atletico Peñarol are clear favourites: 49% against 23% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Club Atletico Peñarol are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
  • Club Atletico Peñarol are 98 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 3 meetings: Juventud de las Piedras 0 wins, Club Atletico Peñarol 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Juventud de las Piedras — Club Atletico Peñarol What is xG?0.9–1.4
Juventud de las Piedras not to lose51%
Club Atletico Peñarol not to lose77%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.545%
Total under 2.555%

Match events

  1. 46′Patricio Pernicone · Juventud de las Piedras
  2. 78′Brian Barboza · Club Atletico Peñarol
  3. 81′Emanuel Cecchini · Juventud de las Piedras
  4. 88′Nicolás Fernández · Club Atletico Peñarol
  5. 90′Kevin Rolón · Juventud de las Piedras
  6. 92′Brian Barboza · Club Atletico Peñarol
  7. 95′Agustín Alaniz · Juventud de las Piedras
Substitutions (8)
  1. 59′Matías Arezo ↔ Javier Cabrera · Club Atletico Peñarol
  2. 60′Brian Barboza ↔ Ignacio Alegre · Club Atletico Peñarol
  3. 60′Leandro Umpiérrez ↔ Thiago Espinosa · Club Atletico Peñarol
  4. 66′Agustín Alaniz ↔ Ramiro Peralta · Juventud de las Piedras
  5. 66′Mirko Díaz ↔ Gastón Pereiro · Juventud de las Piedras
  6. 69′Lucas Hernández ↔ Maximiliano Olivera · Club Atletico Peñarol
  7. 75′Jonathan Rodríguez ↔ Abel Hernández · Club Atletico Peñarol
  8. 77′Facundo Domínguez ↔ Bruno Larregui · Juventud de las Piedras

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Juventud de las Piedras

  1. GKSebastián Sosa
  2. DFPatricio Pernicone
  3. DFFederico Barrandeguy
  4. DFDavid Morosini
  5. DFKevin Rolón
  6. MFEmanuel Cecchini
  7. MFLeonel Roldán
  8. MFRodrigo Chagas
  9. MFRamiro Peralta66′
  10. FWGastón Pereiro66′
  11. FWBruno Larregui77′
Came on (3)
  1. FWAgustín Alaniz24′
  2. FWMirko Díaz24′
  3. FWFacundo Domínguez13′

Club Atletico Peñarol

  1. GKWashington Aguerre
  2. DFGermán Pezzella
  3. DFMaximiliano Olivera69′
  4. DFNahuel Herrera
  5. DFIgnacio Alegre60′
  6. MFCristian Jaime
  7. MFNicolás Fernández
  8. MFEric Remedi
  9. MFJavier Cabrera59′
  10. MFThiago Espinosa60′
  11. FWAbel Hernández75′
Came on (5)
  1. FWMatías Arezo31′
  2. DFLucas Hernández21′
  3. DFBrian Barboza30′
  4. MFLeandro Umpiérrez30′
  5. FWJonathan Rodríguez15′

Form

Juventud de las Piedras

  • 17.10away · Club Atlético Progreso0:2
  • 11.10Racing2:0
  • 04.10away · Boston River0:0
  • 27.09Cerro0:0
  • 20.09away · Albion3:1

Club Atletico Peñarol

  • 19.10away · Liverpool FC0:1
  • 11.10Club Atlético Progreso1:1
  • 05.10away · Racing1:0
  • 01.10away · Montevideo City Torque1:1
  • 27.09Boston River2:1

Head to head

  • 21.04.2026Club Atletico Peñarol — Juventud de las Piedras2:2
  • 22.09.2025Club Atletico Peñarol — Juventud de las Piedras1:0
  • 27.03.2025Juventud de las Piedras — Club Atletico Peñarol0:2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →