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Super League Greece, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Kalamata — AEK Athens

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Model prediction for 21 November

Kalamata10%
Draw20%
AEK Athens70%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

AEK Athens are clear favourites: 70% against 10% for the opponent, draw 20%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.

Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings AEK Athens are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
  • AEK Athens are 130 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: Kalamata — No. 8, 11 pts; AEK Athens — No. 4, 17 pts. A gap of 6 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kalamata — AEK Athens What is xG?0.9–2.4
Kalamata not to lose30%
AEK Athens not to lose90%
No draw80%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.562%
Total under 2.538%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Kalamata
  • Kalamata goals
  • AEK Athens goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatKalamataAEK Athens
Goals scored per match1.62.0
Goals conceded per match2.01.3
xG per match1.451.85
Opponents’ xG1.381.07
Shots11.016.3
On target4.45.1
Corners2.45.0
Cards3.21.9
Possession, %4355

Averages per match: Kalamata — the last 9, AEK Athens — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Kalamata

  • 02.11Iraklis1:1
  • 25.10away · Olympiacos0:5
  • 18.10OFI Crete4:3
  • 12.10away · PAOK Thessaloniki3:1
  • 20.09Panathinaikos0:1

AEK Athens

  • 01.11away · Panathinaikos0:2
  • 24.10Panetolikos5:0
  • 20.10away · Manchester City1:5
  • 14.10away · Shakhtar Donetsk1:3
  • 10.10OFI Crete3:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3PAOK Thessaloniki960318–12+618
4AEK Athens852121–5+1617
5OFI Crete951314–12+216
7Kifisia FC932412–14-211
8Kalamata932414–18-411
9Iraklis924310–12-210

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →