Nigeria NPFL, round 10 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
Katsina United — Plateau United
Model prediction and result
2:2Missed
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Katsina United to win (55%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 55% fails in about 45 matches out of 100 on average.
Katsina United are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Katsina United are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Katsina United are 54 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Katsina United 3 wins, Plateau United 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Katsina United — Plateau United What is xG? | 1.5–0.8 | |
| Katsina United not to lose | 81% | |
| Plateau United not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
Match events
- 30′<TBD> · own goal · Plateau United0:1
- 80′Jibril Ibrahim · Plateau United0:2
- 82′Yushau Armiyau · Katsina United1:2
- 93′Umar Mohammed Rabiu · Katsina United2:2
Form
- 18.10away · Kano Pillars0:1
- 09.10Enyimba4:2
- 04.10away · Inter Lagos1:1
- 30.09Rivers United FC1:1
- 27.09Doma United2:1
- 18.10Sporting Lagos2:3
- 11.10Kano Pillars4:0
- 04.10away · Enyimba0:2
- 27.09Inter Lagos2:0
- 23.09away · Doma United2:2
Head to head
- 24.01.2026Katsina United — Plateau United0:0
- 31.08.2025Plateau United — Katsina United1:2
- 30.01.2025Katsina United — Plateau United1:0
- 08.09.2024Plateau United — Katsina United1:0
- 17.03.2024Katsina United — Plateau United2:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →