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Belgian Pro League, round 9 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3) · Guldensporenstadion

Kortrijk — KV Mechelen

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Model prediction for 4 November

Kortrijk36%
Draw30%
KV Mechelen34%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Evenly matched: Kortrijk 36%, KV Mechelen 34%, draw 30%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Kortrijk's starting XI is weaker than usual (attack).

Facts

  • League table: Kortrijk — No. 18, 4 pts; KV Mechelen — No. 14, 9 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • KV Mechelen: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Kortrijk 1 win, KV Mechelen 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kortrijk — KV Mechelen What is xG?1.3–1.3
Kortrijk not to lose66%
KV Mechelen not to lose64%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

Model vs market

The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Kortrijk to win” at 36%, the market at 41%.

  • Kortrijk to winModel36%odds 2.78Market41%odds 2.46
  • DrawModel30%odds 3.33Market27%odds 3.68
  • KV Mechelen to winModel34%odds 2.94Market32%odds 3.11
  • Total over 2.5Model48%odds 2.08Market53%odds 1.87
  • Total under 2.5Model52%odds 1.92Market47%odds 2.15
  • Both teams to score: yesModel55%odds 1.82Market59%odds 1.69
  • Both teams to score: noModel45%odds 2.22Market41%odds 2.45

Check your odds

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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Team news

Kortrijk · out or doubtful: 4

  • Brecht DejaeghereInjury · expected back: mid November
  • Nayel MehssatouKnock · expected back: day to day
  • Jamie RocheKnock · expected back: day to day
  • Basile VroninksKnock · expected back: day to day

KV Mechelen · out or doubtful: 9

  • Frédéric VanderbiestSuspended until 4 November
  • Frederik VanderbiestSuspended
  • Bouke BoersmaMuscle injury · expected back: in a few days
  • Keano VanrafelghemInjury · expected back: day to day
  • Dikeni SalifouKnock · expected back: day to day
  • Ian StruyfMuscle injury · expected back: day to day
  • Adeshina AyodeleInjury · expected back: late May 2027
  • Leo HjeldeInjury · expected back: day to day
  • Tommy St. JagoMuscle injury · expected back: day to day

The lineups are not out yet: the official ones come about an hour before kick-off. See the lineups

Updated 4 November, (UTC+3)

The teams in their last matches

StatKortrijkKV Mechelen
Goals scored per match0.31.0
Goals conceded per match2.12.0
xG per match1.041.08
Opponents’ xG1.821.58
Shots11.610.6
On target3.02.9
Corners3.64.2
Cards2.21.7
Possession, %4547

Averages per match: Kortrijk — the last 9, KV Mechelen — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Last starting lineups

How the teams started their last match; the official lineups come about an hour before kick-off.

Kortrijk

  1. GKMarko Ilić
  2. DFAxel Drouhin
  3. DFHarrison Murray-Campbell
  4. DFJames Ndjeungoue
  5. DFMohamed Fofana
  6. MFBoris Lambert
  7. MFAnthony Philips
  8. MFMatthew Anderson
  9. FWGoduine Koyalipou
  10. FWThierry Ambrose
  11. FWJellert van Landschoot
Bench (9)
  1. DFRudy Kohon
  2. FWSixtus Ogbuehi
  3. GKPatrik Gunnarsson
  4. MFSuf Podgoreanu
  5. FWKen Masui
  6. MFLenn De Smet
  7. DFGilles Ruyssen
  8. MFRok Štorman
  9. MFLiam De Smet

KV Mechelen

  1. GKOrtwin de Wolf
  2. DFJosé Marsà
  3. DFLuc Marijnissen
  4. DFKobe Corbanie
  5. MFThérence Koudou
  6. MFSimion Michez
  7. MFFredrik Hammar
  8. MFMyron van Brederode
  9. MFMarco Decherf
  10. FWBenito Raman
  11. FWMalcolm Lohunanu-Mbasi
Bench (9)
  1. FWMaxim Kireev
  2. MFDennis Praet
  3. MFCedric Van Meirvenne
  4. DFMassimo Decoene
  5. MFBill Antonio
  6. MFBilal Bafdili
  7. FWHalil Özdemir
  8. DFGora Diouf
  9. GKTijn Van Ingelgom

Form

Kortrijk

  • 31.10away · Standard Liège1:1
  • 10.10away · Genk0:3
  • 20.09SK Beveren1:0
  • 13.09away · RAAL La Louvière0:3
  • 06.09Zulte Waregem0:2

KV Mechelen

  • 31.10Genk1:0
  • 18.10Eupen5:1
  • 11.10St.Truiden4:3
  • 19.09away · Lommel0:0
  • 11.09Anderlecht0:1

Head to head

  • 29.11.2024Kortrijk — KV Mechelen3:1
  • 20.10.2024KV Mechelen — Kortrijk3:0
  • 24.02.2024KV Mechelen — Kortrijk3:0
  • 26.11.2023Kortrijk — KV Mechelen0:3
  • 21.01.2023KV Mechelen — Kortrijk3:2

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
13OH Leuven1023510–17-79
14KV Mechelen923410–17-79
15St.Truiden1022618–21-38
17, RelegationCercle Brugge1013613–22-96
18, RelegationKortrijk91173–19-164

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →