Nigeria NPFL, round 9 · Saturday, 17 October, (UTC+3)
Kwara United — Abia Warriors
Model prediction and result
1:1Missed
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Kwara United to win (63%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 63% fails in about 37 matches out of 100 on average.
Kwara United are clear favourites: 63% against 13% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 33%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kwara United are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Kwara United are 83 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Kwara United 0 wins, Abia Warriors 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kwara United — Abia Warriors What is xG? | 1.5–0.5 | |
| Kwara United not to lose | 87% | |
| Abia Warriors not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 33% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 67% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 34% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 66% |
Match events
- 38′Ali Ferinyaro · Kwara United1:0
- 50′Emmanuel Nnaji · Abia Warriors1:1
Form
- 10.10away · Ikorodu City0:2
- 04.10Ranchers Bees2:1
- 27.09away · Kun Khalifat0:1
- 23.09Nasarawa United2:1
- 20.09away · Warri Wolves FC0:1
- 11.10Rivers United FC0:0
- 04.10away · Enugu Rangers1:3
- 27.09Bendel Insurance3:0
- 23.09away · Barau0:2
- 20.09away · Sporting Lagos2:0
Head to head
- 22.02.2026Abia Warriors — Kwara United1:0
- 05.10.2025Kwara United — Abia Warriors0:1
- 26.02.2025Kwara United — Abia Warriors0:0
- 13.10.2024Abia Warriors — Kwara United1:0
- 29.02.2024Abia Warriors — Kwara United1:0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →