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Paraguayan Primera Division · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Libertad — Luqueño

Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Libertad65%
Draw21%
Luqueño14%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Libertad to win (65%), came true.

Libertad are clear favourites: 65% against 14% for the opponent, draw 21%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Libertad are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
  • Libertad are 274 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Libertad 4 wins, Luqueño 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Libertad — Luqueño What is xG?2.0–0.9
Libertad not to lose86%
Luqueño not to lose35%
No draw79%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.552%
Total under 2.548%

Match events

  1. 41′Jonathan Ramos · Luqueño
  2. 53′Álvaro Campuzano · Libertad
  3. 71′Lorenzo Melgarejo · Libertad1:0
  4. 82′Lucas Barrios · Luqueño
  5. 84′Nelson Valdez · Libertad
  6. 85′Fernando Benítez · Luqueño
  7. 86′Walter González · Luqueño
  8. 92′Rodrigo Villalba · Libertad
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Adrián Brizuela ↔ Miguel Barreto · Luqueño
  2. 54′Ivan Ramírez ↔ Gustavo Aguilar · Libertad
  3. 54′Federico Carrizo ↔ Lucas Sanabria · Libertad
  4. 55′Lorenzo Melgarejo ↔ Hugo Fernández · Libertad
  5. 57′Aldo Maíz ↔ Samuel Beltrán · Luqueño
  6. 67′José Estigarribia ↔ Néstor Giménez · Libertad
  7. 70′Walter González ↔ Iván Maggi · Luqueño
  8. 70′Kevin Pereira ↔ Marcelo Ojeda · Luqueño
  9. 70′Lautaro Comas ↔ Jonathan Ramos · Luqueño
  10. 75′Rodrigo Villalba ↔ Elvio Vera · Libertad

Match statistics

LibertadLuqueño
  • 65Possession, %35
  • 12Shots16
  • 4On target6
  • 2Big chances1
  • 4Corners8
  • 11Fouls4
  • 1Offsides3
  • 2Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Libertad

  1. GKRodrigo Morínigo8.4
  2. DFAlan Benítez7.3
  3. DFNéstor Giménez67′6.5
  4. DFThiago Fernández7.7
  5. DFGilberto Flores7.0
  6. MFHugo Fernández55′7.3
  7. MFLucas Sanabria54′6.7
  8. MFÁlvaro Campuzano (C)7.7
  9. MFIván Franco7.7
  10. FWGustavo Aguilar54′6.6
  11. FWElvio Vera75′7.0
Came on (5)
  1. DFGustavo Centurion23′6.1
  2. MFLorenzo Melgarejo35′7.5
  3. MFFederico Carrizo36′8.0
  4. DFRodrigo Villalba15′6.5
  5. FWIvan Ramírez36′6.2

Luqueño

  1. GKNicolás Campisi6.5
  2. DFAlexis Cantero6.5
  3. DFMiguel Barreto45′6.4
  4. DFSantiago Ocampos6.5
  5. DFFacundo Wiechniak7.3
  6. MFSamuel Beltrán57′6.5
  7. MFGiovanni Bogado7.8
  8. MFFernando Benítez (C)7.1
  9. FWIván Maggi70′6.1
  10. FWJonathan Ramos70′6.2
  11. FWMarcelo Ojeda70′7.3
Came on (5)
  1. FWWalter González20′5.9
  2. FWKevin Pereira20′6.5
  3. MFLautaro Comas20′6.1
  4. MFAldo Maíz33′6.1
  5. DFAdrián Brizuela45′6.5

Form

Libertad

  • 19.10away · Sportivo Trinidense0:1
  • 12.10Guaraní2:2
  • 05.10away · Recoleta2:1
  • 29.09Olimpia0:1
  • 19.09Sportivo Ameliano1:1

Luqueño

  • 19.10Sportivo San Lorenzo3:2
  • 11.10Cerro Porteño0:3
  • 05.10away · Sportivo Trinidense2:3
  • 25.09Guaraní0:1
  • 21.09Recoleta1:0

Head to head

  • 16.08.2026Luqueño — Libertad1:2
  • 11.05.2026Luqueño — Libertad2:3
  • 08.03.2026Libertad — Luqueño1:0
  • 14.09.2025Luqueño — Libertad1:4
  • 06.07.2025Libertad — Luqueño0:1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →