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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 13 · Monday, 2 November, (UTC+3)

Liverpool FC — Juventud de las Piedras

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Liverpool FC51%
Draw28%
Juventud de las Piedras21%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Liverpool FC to win (51%), came true.

Liverpool FC are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 46%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Liverpool FC are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
  • Liverpool FC are 202 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Liverpool FC: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 3 meetings: Liverpool FC 0 wins, Juventud de las Piedras 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Liverpool FC — Juventud de las Piedras What is xG?1.4–0.8
Liverpool FC not to lose79%
Juventud de las Piedras not to lose49%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes46%
Both teams to score: no54%
Total over 2.543%
Total under 2.557%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Liverpool FC
  • Liverpool FC goals
  • Juventud de las Piedras goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 5′Federico Martínez · Liverpool FC1:0
  2. 12′Kevin Rolón · Juventud de las Piedras
  3. 14′Federico Martínez · Liverpool FC2:0
  4. 25′Agustín Cayetano · Liverpool FC
  5. 30′Leonel Roldán · Juventud de las Piedras
  6. 35′Santiago Strasorier · Liverpool FC
  7. 51′Patricio Pernicone · Juventud de las Piedras
  8. 72′Patricio Pernicone · Juventud de las Piedras
  9. 79′Renzo Rabino · Juventud de las Piedras
  10. 80′Santiago Laquidain · Liverpool FC
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Santiago Laquidain ↔ Agustín Cayetano · Liverpool FC
  2. 46′Rodrigo Chagas ↔ Kevin Rolón · Juventud de las Piedras
  3. 46′Renzo Rabino ↔ Leonel Roldán · Juventud de las Piedras
  4. 55′Alejo Cruz ↔ Gastón Pereiro · Juventud de las Piedras
  5. 63′Diego Romero ↔ Ramiro Degregorio · Liverpool FC
  6. 67′Mirko Díaz ↔ Bruno Larregui · Juventud de las Piedras
  7. 75′Martín Boselli ↔ Federico Barrandeguy · Juventud de las Piedras
  8. 75′Renzo Machado ↔ Rubén Bentancourt · Liverpool FC
  9. 75′Diego Zabala ↔ Kevin Lewis · Liverpool FC
  10. 88′Joaquín Pintos ↔ Federico Martínez · Liverpool FC

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Liverpool FC

  1. GKMathías Bernatene
  2. DFEnzo Castillo
  3. DFSantiago Strasorier
  4. DFAgustín Cayetano46′
  5. MFRamiro Degregorio63′
  6. MFNicolás Garayalde
  7. MFRafael Haller
  8. MFKevin Lewis75′
  9. MFLucas Acosta
  10. FWRubén Bentancourt75′
  11. FWFederico Martínez88′
Came on (5)
  1. DFSantiago Laquidain44′
  2. MFDiego Zabala15′
  3. DFDiego Romero27′
  4. FWRenzo Machado15′
  5. MFJoaquín Pintos2′

Juventud de las Piedras

  1. GKSebastián Sosa
  2. DFPatricio Pernicone
  3. DFFederico Barrandeguy75′
  4. DFDavid Morosini
  5. DFKevin Rolón46′
  6. MFEmanuel Cecchini
  7. MFLeonel Roldán46′
  8. MFRamiro Peralta
  9. FWGastón Pereiro55′
  10. FWAgustín Alaniz
  11. FWBruno Larregui67′
Came on (5)
  1. FWAlejo Cruz35′
  2. MFRodrigo Chagas44′
  3. DFRenzo Rabino44′
  4. FWMartín Boselli15′
  5. FWMirko Díaz23′

Form

Liverpool FC

  • 26.10away · Nacional (URU)1:0
  • 19.10Club Atletico Peñarol1:0
  • 10.10away · Deportivo Maldonado1:1
  • 03.10Club Atlético Progreso3:2
  • 27.09away · Central Español2:1

Juventud de las Piedras

  • 24.10Club Atletico Peñarol0:0
  • 17.10away · Club Atlético Progreso0:2
  • 11.10Racing2:0
  • 04.10away · Boston River0:0
  • 27.09Cerro0:0

Head to head

  • 25.04.2026Juventud de las Piedras — Liverpool FC1:1
  • 01.11.2025Liverpool FC — Juventud de las Piedras0:1
  • 04.05.2025Juventud de las Piedras — Liverpool FC1:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →