Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín
Millonarios — CD Jaguares
Model prediction and result
4:1Came true
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Millonarios to win (74%), came true.
Millonarios are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 17%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Millonarios are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
- Millonarios are 301 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Millonarios: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Millonarios 1 win, CD Jaguares 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Millonarios — CD Jaguares What is xG? | 2.1–0.7 | |
| Millonarios not to lose | 91% | |
| CD Jaguares not to lose | 26% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
Match events
- 34′Andrey Estupiñán · Millonarios1:0
- 40′Leonardo Castro · Millonarios2:0
- 42′Wilfrido De La Rosa · CD Jaguares
- 43′Sergio Mosquera · Millonarios
- 45′David Silva · Millonarios
- 46′Cristian Álvarez · CD Jaguares2:1
- 50′Jonathan Lovera · CD Jaguares
- 61′Andrey Estupiñán · Millonarios
- 63′Andrey Estupiñán · Millonarios3:1
- 69′Jerson Malagón · CD Jaguares
- 70′Daniel Ruiz · Millonarios4:1
- 73′Stiven Vega · Millonarios
- 75′Andrés Rentería · CD Jaguares
- 80′Juan Cuadrado · Millonarios
- 90′Sebastián Valencia · Millonarios
- 91′Leonai · Millonarios
Substitutions (10)
- 46′Darwin López ↔ Wilfrido De La Rosa · CD Jaguares
- 46′Jerson Malagón ↔ Juan Franco · CD Jaguares
- 66′Esteban Beltrán ↔ Cristian Álvarez · CD Jaguares
- 77′Santiago Cubides ↔ Jonathan Lovera · CD Jaguares
- 78′Jose Yanez ↔ Royscer Colpa · CD Jaguares
- 78′Leonai ↔ Andrey Estupiñán · Millonarios
- 78′Andrés Llinás ↔ Stiven Barreiro · Millonarios
- 78′Rodrigo Contreras ↔ Leonardo Castro · Millonarios
- 86′Julián Angulo ↔ Juan Cuadrado · Millonarios
- 89′Yeiner Romero ↔ David Silva · Millonarios
Match statistics
MillonariosCD Jaguares
- 2.80Expected goals (xG)0.17
- 50Possession, %50
- 21Shots3
- 9On target1
- 3Big chances0
- 3Corners0
- 16Fouls9
- 4Offsides3
- 7Yellow cards4
- 0Red cards0
Lineups
Millonarios
- GKJavier Burrai6.0
- DFStiven Barreiro78′6.7
- DFSebastián Valencia7.3
- DFSergio Mosquera6.8
- DFSamuel Martín7.8
- MFJuan Cuadrado (C)86′7.6
- MFDaniel Ruiz8.9
- MFStiven Vega7.2
- MFDavid Silva89′7.7
- FWLeonardo Castro78′9.2
- FWAndrey Estupiñán78′8.8
Came on (5)
- FWRodrigo Contreras12′6.2
- MFLeonai12′6.0
- DFAndrés Llinás12′6.0
- FWJulián Angulo4′
- MFYeiner Romero1′
CD Jaguares
- GKFranklin Mosquera6.6
- DFCarlos Henao5.5
- DFLuis Jiménez5.3
- DFJuan Franco45′6.5
- DFJonathan Lovera77′5.3
- MFRafael Bustamante6.6
- MFJohar Mejía5.5
- MFRoyscer Colpa78′6.5
- MFWilfrido De La Rosa45′5.5
- FWAndrés Rentería (C)6.2
- FWCristian Álvarez66′7.7
Came on (5)
- DFJerson Malagón45′6.3
- FWSantiago Cubides13′6.0
- FWEsteban Beltrán24′6.5
- FWDarwin López45′6.1
- MFJose Yanez12′6.6
Form
- 09.10away · Fortaleza FC1:1
- 30.09away · Independiente Medellín2:2
- 25.09away · Atlético Nacional1:1
- 19.09Chicó FC3:0
- 14.09away · Cúcuta2:1
- 12.10Tolima3:2
- 03.10away · Águilas Doradas0:2
- 28.09Alianza FC1:2
- 23.09away · Independiente Medellín1:2
- 12.09Fortaleza FC2:2
Head to head
- 03.04.2026CD Jaguares — Millonarios1:0
- 26.09.2024Millonarios — CD Jaguares0:0
- 11.03.2024CD Jaguares — Millonarios2:1
- 14.08.2023CD Jaguares — Millonarios2:0
- 19.02.2023Millonarios — CD Jaguares2:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →