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Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Wednesday, 21 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Millonarios — Once Caldas

Model prediction and result

1:1Missed
Millonarios58%
Draw25%
Once Caldas17%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Millonarios to win (58%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 58% fails in about 42 matches out of 100 on average.

Millonarios are clear favourites: 58% against 17% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Millonarios are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
  • Millonarios are 142 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • Millonarios: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Millonarios 1 win, Once Caldas 0, 4 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Millonarios — Once Caldas What is xG?1.7–0.8
Millonarios not to lose83%
Once Caldas not to lose42%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.547%
Total under 2.553%

Match events

  1. 46′Sergio Mosquera · Millonarios
  2. 65′Jorge Cardona · Once Caldas
  3. 68′Daniel Ruiz · Millonarios1:0
  4. 85′Stiven Vega · Millonarios
  5. 86′Juan Cuadrado · Millonarios
  6. 87′Daniel Ruiz · Millonarios
  7. 89′Dayro Moreno · penalty · Once Caldas1:1
  8. 90′Michael Barrios · Once Caldas
Substitutions (6)
  1. 28′Rodrigo Ureña ↔ Samuel Martín · Millonarios
  2. 66′Sebastián Viveros ↔ David Silva · Millonarios
  3. 66′Rodrigo Contreras ↔ Leonardo Castro · Millonarios
  4. 77′Dayro Moreno ↔ Jader Quiñónes · Once Caldas
  5. 82′Edwin Torres ↔ Pipe Gómez · Once Caldas
  6. 93′Jaime Alvarado ↔ Jefry Zapata · Once Caldas

Match statistics

MillonariosOnce Caldas
  • 0.46Expected goals (xG)1.65
  • 47Possession, %53
  • 14Shots13
  • 3On target4
  • 0Big chances2
  • 5Corners3
  • 15Fouls16
  • 1Offsides1
  • 4Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Millonarios

  1. GKJavier Burrai6.8
  2. DFStiven Barreiro6.8
  3. DFDanovis Banguero6.8
  4. DFSergio Mosquera6.6
  5. DFSamuel Martín28′6.2
  6. MFJuan Cuadrado (C)7.6
  7. MFDaniel Ruiz7.8
  8. MFStiven Vega7.3
  9. MFDavid Silva66′6.8
  10. FWLeonardo Castro66′6.4
  11. FWAndrey Estupiñán6.5
Came on (3)
  1. FWRodrigo Contreras24′6.0
  2. MFSebastián Viveros24′6.4
  3. MFRodrigo Ureña62′6.8

Once Caldas

  1. GKJoan Parra6.0
  2. DFJuan Cuesta6.9
  3. DFDaniel Londoño6.9
  4. DFJuan Patiño6.0
  5. DFJorge Cardona6.8
  6. MFAndrés Colorado (C)6.9
  7. MFJuan Nieto7.2
  8. MFJader Quiñónes77′6.8
  9. FWPipe Gómez82′6.2
  10. FWJefry Zapata89′6.8
  11. FWMichael Barrios7.5
Came on (3)
  1. MFJaime Alvarado1′
  2. FWDayro Moreno13′7.3
  3. FWEdwin Torres8′

Form

Millonarios

  • 18.10CD Jaguares4:1
  • 09.10away · Fortaleza FC1:1
  • 30.09away · Independiente Medellín2:2
  • 25.09away · Atlético Nacional1:1
  • 19.09Chicó FC3:0

Once Caldas

  • 18.10away · Independiente Medellín2:0
  • 10.10Llaneros FC1:0
  • 05.10away · Internacional de Bogotá1:1
  • 26.09Bucaramanga1:3
  • 20.09away · Deportivo Pasto0:1

Head to head

  • 22.03.2026Once Caldas — Millonarios1:4
  • 30.10.2025Millonarios — Once Caldas0:0
  • 12.06.2025Millonarios — Once Caldas2:2
  • 09.06.2025Once Caldas — Millonarios0:0
  • 12.05.2025Once Caldas — Millonarios2:2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →