Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
Montlucon Football — AS Montferrand
Model prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Montlucon Football to win (41%), came true.
Montlucon Football are slightly stronger: 41% against 33%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Montlucon Football are 90 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Montlucon Football — AS Montferrand What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Montlucon Football not to lose | 67% | |
| AS Montferrand not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
Form
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →