Serie A, round 12 · Monday, 23 November, 22:45 (UTC+3)

Monza — Fiorentina

Model prediction for 23 November

Monza24%

Draw27%

Fiorentina48%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Fiorentina are clear favourites: 48% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.

Why

By the strength ratings Fiorentina are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Fiorentina are 66 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Monza — No. 18, 7 pts; Fiorentina — No. 16, 8 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Monza: 3 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Monza 2 wins, Fiorentina 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Monza — Fiorentina What is xG?		1.2–1.6
Monza not to lose		52%
Fiorentina not to lose		76%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		59%
Both teams to score: no		41%
Total over 2.5		54%
Total under 2.5		46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Monza
Monza goals
Fiorentina goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Monza	Fiorentina
Goals scored per match	1.7	1.8
Goals conceded per match	2.0	1.9
xG per match	1.64	1.71
Opponents’ xG	1.34	1.20
Shots	13.7	16.8
On target	5.9	5.3
Corners	4.3	4.8
Cards	1.7	2.3
Possession, %	45	47

Averages per match: Monza — the last 10, Fiorentina — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Monza

31.10away · Bologna1:2
28.10Napoli1:4
23.10away · Torino2:3
19.10Cagliari4:0
11.10away · Lazio1:3

Fiorentina

02.11away · Sassuolo4:2
29.10Atalanta2:2
25.10away · Inter1:2
18.10Como1:3
10.10away · Genoa1:2

Head to head

13.01.2025Monza — Fiorentina2:1
01.09.2024Fiorentina — Monza2:2
13.05.2024Fiorentina — Monza2:1
22.12.2023Monza — Fiorentina0:1
23.04.2023Monza — Fiorentina3:2

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
15	Parma	10	2	2	6	8–15	-7	8
16	Fiorentina	10	2	2	6	15–23	-8	8
17	Sassuolo	10	2	2	6	16–26	-10	8
18, Relegation	Monza	10	2	1	7	17–24	-7	7
19, Relegation	Udinese	10	1	2	7	11–23	-12	5

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →