PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

Paraguayan Primera Division · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Arsenio Erico

Nacional (PAR) — Sportivo Trinidense

Model prediction and result

0:1Missed
Nacional (PAR)50%
Draw29%
Sportivo Trinidense21%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Nacional (PAR) to win (50%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.

Nacional (PAR) are clear favourites: 50% against 21% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Nacional (PAR) are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
  • Nacional (PAR) are 154 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Nacional (PAR): unbeaten in 5; Sportivo Trinidense: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Nacional (PAR) 2 wins, Sportivo Trinidense 0, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Nacional (PAR) — Sportivo Trinidense What is xG?1.5–0.9
Nacional (PAR) not to lose79%
Sportivo Trinidense not to lose50%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

Match events

  1. 28′Ariel Gauto · Sportivo Trinidense
  2. 31′José Arrua · Sportivo Trinidense
  3. 52′Hugo Benítez · Nacional (PAR)
  4. 77′Mauro Coronel · Nacional (PAR)
  5. 77′Thomas Gutiérrez · Nacional (PAR)
  6. 85′Rodrigo Melgarejo · Nacional (PAR)
  7. 92′Junior Gamarra · Sportivo Trinidense0:1
Substitutions (8)
  1. 61′Junior Gamarra ↔ Nicolás Maná · Sportivo Trinidense
  2. 65′Ignacio Bailone ↔ Iván Valdez · Nacional (PAR)
  3. 69′Luis De la Cruz ↔ Luis Abreu · Sportivo Trinidense
  4. 69′Sergio Mendoza ↔ Diego Melgarejo · Sportivo Trinidense
  5. 79′Orlando Gaona Lugo ↔ Fabrizio Jara · Nacional (PAR)
  6. 79′Matías Almeida ↔ Josué Colmán · Nacional (PAR)
  7. 82′Faustino Barone ↔ Clementino González · Sportivo Trinidense
  8. 82′Néstor Camacho ↔ Ariel Gauto · Sportivo Trinidense

Match statistics

Nacional (PAR)Sportivo Trinidense
  • 56Possession, %44
  • 13Shots14
  • 1On target4
  • 0Big chances1
  • 5Corners13
  • 11Fouls10
  • 1Offsides0
  • 4Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Nacional (PAR)

  1. GKSantiago Rojas (C)6.9
  2. DFRodrigo Melgarejo7.6
  3. DFCarlos Espínola6.7
  4. DFSebastián Vargas7.2
  5. DFMauro Coronel7.0
  6. MFÁngel Lucena7.1
  7. MFFabrizio Jara79′7.2
  8. MFLeandro Meza6.3
  9. FWJosué Colmán79′6.6
  10. FWIván Valdez65′7.0
  11. FWHugo Benítez6.1
Came on (3)
  1. MFOrlando Gaona Lugo11′6.1
  2. FWIgnacio Bailone25′6.1
  3. FWMatías Almeida11′5.9

Sportivo Trinidense

  1. GKVíctor Samudio7.4
  2. DFAxel Cañete8.0
  3. DFAgustín Da Silveira7.3
  4. DFCésar Benítez7.2
  5. DFDiego Melgarejo69′7.3
  6. MFLuis Abreu69′7.2
  7. MFGustavo Viera (C)7.4
  8. MFAriel Gauto82′7.5
  9. FWTobías Morinigo6.9
  10. FWClementino González82′6.4
  11. FWNicolás Maná61′6.9
Came on (5)
  1. FWGustavo Centurion29′7.4
  2. MFSergio Mendoza21′6.6
  3. DFLuis De la Cruz21′6.4
  4. FWNéstor Camacho8′
  5. FWFaustino Barone8′

Form

Nacional (PAR)

  • 17.10away · Guaraní2:0
  • 13.10Recoleta1:0
  • 07.10away · Olimpia1:1
  • 26.09Sportivo Ameliano1:1
  • 19.092 de Mayo3:0

Sportivo Trinidense

  • 19.10Libertad1:0
  • 10.10away · Sportivo San Lorenzo1:1
  • 05.10Luqueño3:2
  • 27.09Cerro Porteño2:1
  • 18.09Guaraní0:1

Head to head

  • 16.08.2026Sportivo Trinidense — Nacional (PAR)1:1
  • 10.05.2026Nacional (PAR) — Sportivo Trinidense2:1
  • 10.03.2026Sportivo Trinidense — Nacional (PAR)1:1
  • 01.11.2025Nacional (PAR) — Sportivo Trinidense0:0
  • 18.08.2025Sportivo Trinidense — Nacional (PAR)0:2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →