Brazilian Serie B, round 36 · Sunday, 1 November, 01:30 MSK

Náutico — Avaí

Model prediction for 1 November

Náutico42%

Draw29%

Avaí30%

Model estimate at 14:19 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Náutico are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 29%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

By the strength ratings Náutico are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Náutico — No. 14, 42 pts; Avaí — No. 17, 36 pts. A gap of 6 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Náutico — Avaí What is xG?		1.3–1.1
Náutico not to lose		70%
Avaí not to lose		58%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		49%
Both teams to score: no		51%
Total over 2.5		43%
Total under 2.5		57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Náutico
Náutico goals
Avaí goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Náutico

11.10Vila Nova0:2
09.10Novorizontino0:2
03.10away · Fortaleza1:1
26.09Sport Recife3:1
22.09away · Cuiabá0:3

Avaí

12.10away · Cuiabá1:0
08.10Londrina2:1
03.10Ceará0:1
27.09away · Criciúma0:3
20.09away · Goiás1:2

Head to head

12.07.2026Avaí — Náutico2:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
13	Athletic Club MG	33	10	13	10	40–39	+1	43
14	Náutico	33	11	9	13	39–42	-3	42
15	Ceará	33	11	9	13	35–40	-5	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	37–38	-1	41
17, Relegation	Avaí	33	10	6	17	33–43	-10	36
18, Relegation	Londrina	33	7	8	18	42–49	-7	29

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

00:00
Vila NovaJuventudepreliminary
423127
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
22:00
LondrinaAmérica-MGpreliminary
652213
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →