Uzbekistan Super League, round 26 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3)
Neftchi Fargona — Bunyodkor Tashkent
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Neftchi Fargona are clear favourites: 78% against 8% for the opponent, draw 14%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 71%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Neftchi Fargona are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Neftchi Fargona are 368 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Neftchi Fargona — No. 1, 58 pts; Bunyodkor Tashkent — No. 13, 26 pts. A gap of 32 pts.
- Neftchi Fargona: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Neftchi Fargona — Bunyodkor Tashkent What is xG? | 2.9–0.8 | |
| Neftchi Fargona not to lose | 92% | |
| Bunyodkor Tashkent not to lose | 22% | |
| No draw | 86% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 71% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 29% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Neftchi Fargona
- Neftchi Fargona goals
- Bunyodkor Tashkent goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
Form
- 23.10away · Pakhtakor Tashkent3:1
- 16.10away · Kokand 19124:2
- 07.10Xorazm2:2
- 20.09away · Lokomotiv Tashkent1:0
- 09.09Surkhon-20112:1
- 22.10Mashal Muborak2:1
- 16.10Sogdiana1:1
- 09.10away · Pakhtakor Tashkent1:3
- 19.09Buxoro2:1
- 09.09away · Nasaf Qarshi0:3
Head to head
- 14.04.2026Bunyodkor Tashkent — Neftchi Fargona0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 25 | 18 | +37 | 58 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 26 | 16 | +20 | 56 |
| 12 | Surkhon-2011 | 26 | 7 | -9 | 30 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor Tashkent | 25 | 8 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 | Kokand 1912 | 26 | 5 | -11 | 24 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →