PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

Paraguayan Primera Division · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Olimpia — 2 de Mayo

Model prediction and result

3:0Came true
Olimpia61%
Draw24%
2 de Mayo15%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Olimpia to win (61%), came true.

Olimpia are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 24%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 45%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Olimpia are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
  • Olimpia are 187 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Olimpia: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Olimpia 1 win, 2 de Mayo 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Olimpia — 2 de Mayo What is xG?1.7–0.8
Olimpia not to lose85%
2 de Mayo not to lose39%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes45%
Both teams to score: no55%
Total over 2.543%
Total under 2.557%

Match events

  1. 6′Gabriel Ávalos · Olimpia1:0
  2. 27′Juan Alfaro · Olimpia
  3. 51′Alexis Fariña · 2 de Mayo
  4. 68′Óscar Romero · 2 de Mayo
  5. 85′Mateo Gamarra · Olimpia2:0
  6. 88′Tiago Caballero · Olimpia
  7. 90′Pedro Sosa · 2 de Mayo
  8. 94′Rodney Redes · Olimpia3:0
Substitutions (10)
  1. 32′Gustavo Vargas ↔ Juan Vera · Olimpia
  2. 46′Tobías Sanabria ↔ Luis Delgadillo · 2 de Mayo
  3. 57′Alexis Villalva ↔ Alberto Espínola · 2 de Mayo
  4. 57′Romeo Benítez ↔ Sebastián Ferreira · Olimpia
  5. 64′Matías Cáceres ↔ Alexis Fariña · 2 de Mayo
  6. 64′Tobías Portillo ↔ Pedro Delvalle · 2 de Mayo
  7. 68′Tiago Caballero ↔ Gabriel Ávalos · Olimpia
  8. 68′Franco Alfonso ↔ Eduardo Delmás · Olimpia
  9. 69′Rodney Redes ↔ Juan Alfaro · Olimpia
  10. 82′Jorge Sanguina ↔ Tobías Cervera · 2 de Mayo

Match statistics

Olimpia2 de Mayo
  • 54Possession, %46
  • 21Shots12
  • 10On target4
  • 8Big chances1
  • 3Corners4
  • 15Fouls11
  • 3Offsides1
  • 2Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Olimpia

  1. GKGastón Olveira8.0
  2. DFMateo Gamarra8.5
  3. DFRaúl Cáceres7.8
  4. DFEsteban Matus6.9
  5. DFJuan Vera32′5.8
  6. MFJuan Alfaro69′8.3
  7. MFRichard Ortiz (C)8.5
  8. FWGabriel Ávalos68′7.9
  9. FWFernando Cardozo8.5
  10. FWSebastián Ferreira57′7.1
  11. FWEduardo Delmás68′6.7
Came on (5)
  1. FWFranco Alfonso22′6.2
  2. MFRomeo Benítez33′7.2
  3. FWRodney Redes21′7.8
  4. DFGustavo Vargas58′6.5
  5. FWTiago Caballero22′6.4

2 de Mayo

  1. GKNicolás Rossi7.2
  2. DFCésar Ramírez6.4
  3. DFPedro Sosa (C)6.0
  4. DFAlberto Espínola57′6.8
  5. DFCésar Castro6.6
  6. MFÓscar Romero6.3
  7. MFAlexis Fariña64′6.6
  8. MFLuis Delgadillo45′6.5
  9. FWTobías Cervera82′6.9
  10. FWAlan Gómez7.6
  11. FWPedro Delvalle64′6.3
Came on (5)
  1. FWJorge Sanguina8′
  2. FWMatías Cáceres26′6.0
  3. DFAlexis Villalva33′6.6
  4. MFTobías Sanabria45′6.0
  5. FWTobías Portillo26′6.0

Form

Olimpia

  • 11.10away · Rubio Ñú0:0
  • 07.10Nacional (PAR)1:1
  • 29.09away · Libertad1:0
  • 20.09away · Sportivo San Lorenzo3:0
  • 13.09Luqueño3:0

2 de Mayo

  • 12.10Sportivo Ameliano1:0
  • 06.10away · Cerro Porteño2:0
  • 26.09away · Rubio Ñú2:2
  • 19.09away · Nacional (PAR)0:3
  • 12.09Libertad0:2

Head to head

  • 09.08.20262 de Mayo — Olimpia1:0
  • 29.03.2026Olimpia — 2 de Mayo4:1
  • 29.01.20262 de Mayo — Olimpia1:1
  • 27.11.2025Olimpia — 2 de Mayo3:3
  • 07.09.20252 de Mayo — Olimpia3:2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →