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Primera Nacional, round 35 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes

Quilmes — San Martín de Tucumán

Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Quilmes41%
Draw31%
San Martín de Tucumán27%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Quilmes to win (41%), came true.

Quilmes are slightly stronger: 41% against 27%, draw 31%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Quilmes 0 wins, San Martín de Tucumán 2, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Quilmes — San Martín de Tucumán What is xG?1.2–1.0
Quilmes not to lose73%
San Martín de Tucumán not to lose59%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes47%
Both teams to score: no53%
Total over 2.542%
Total under 2.558%

Match events

  1. 8′Nicolás Castro · San Martín de Tucumán0:1
  2. 26′Guillermo Rodríguez · San Martín de Tucumán
  3. 28′Aarón Spetale · penalty · Quilmes1:1
  4. 29′Álvaro Veliez · San Martín de Tucumán
  5. 31′<TBD> · San Martín de Tucumán
  6. 40′Ezequiel Parnisari · San Martín de Tucumán
  7. 43′Juan Yangali · Quilmes
  8. 76′Nahuel Gallardo · San Martín de Tucumán
  9. 82′Gonzalo Rodríguez · San Martín de Tucumán
  10. 85′Aarón Spetale · penalty · Quilmes2:1
  11. 93′<TBD> · San Martín de Tucumán
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Diego Diellos ↔ Agustín Graneros · San Martín de Tucumán
  2. 58′Gabriel Vázquez ↔ Juan Yangali · Quilmes
  3. 63′Gonzalo Rodríguez ↔ Matías García · San Martín de Tucumán
  4. 63′Aníbal Paz ↔ Víctor Salazar · San Martín de Tucumán
  5. 63′Jorge Juárez ↔ Luca Arfaras · San Martín de Tucumán
  6. 71′Santino Rodríguez ↔ Martín Vallejos · Quilmes
  7. 71′Mauro Fernández ↔ Thomas Ortega · Quilmes
  8. 78′Nicolás Colazo ↔ Axel Batista · Quilmes
  9. 78′Lucas Romeo ↔ Joaquín Novillo · Quilmes
  10. 80′Gabriel Carabajal ↔ Nicolás Castro · San Martín de Tucumán

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Quilmes

  1. GKGonzalo Marinelli
  2. DFJoaquín Novillo78′
  3. DFThomas Ortega71′
  4. DFAgustín Bindella
  5. DFAriel Kippes
  6. DFMartín Vallejos71′
  7. MFJuan Yangali58′
  8. MFAxel Batista78′
  9. MFGonzalo Vega
  10. MFFacundo Yozwiak
  11. FWAarón Spetale
Came on (5)
  1. MFNicolás Colazo12′
  2. DFLucas Romeo12′
  3. DFSantino Rodríguez19′
  4. MFMauro Fernández19′
  5. FWGabriel Vázquez32′

San Martín de Tucumán

  1. GKDarío Sand
  2. DFNahuel Gallardo
  3. DFEzequiel Parnisari
  4. DFVíctor Salazar63′
  5. DFGuillermo Rodríguez
  6. MFMatías García63′
  7. MFNicolás Castro80′
  8. MFSantiago Briñone
  9. MFAgustín Graneros46′
  10. MFÁlvaro Veliez
  11. FWLuca Arfaras63′
Came on (5)
  1. MFGabriel Carabajal10′
  2. FWDiego Diellos44′
  3. DFJorge Juárez27′
  4. DFGonzalo Rodríguez27′
  5. MFAníbal Paz27′

Form

Quilmes

  • 17.10away · Atlético Rafaela0:1
  • 10.10Agropecuario0:1
  • 03.10away · Tristán Suárez0:0
  • 26.09Atlético Güemes2:0
  • 20.09away · Chacarita Juniors0:3

San Martín de Tucumán

  • 19.10CA Ferrocarril Midland3:2
  • 11.10away · Atlanta0:1
  • 05.10Gimnasia y Tiro1:0
  • 28.09away · Gimnasia Jujuy2:2
  • 19.09away · Atlético Rafaela2:4

Head to head

  • 07.06.2026San Martín de Tucumán — Quilmes0:0
  • 29.09.2025San Martín de Tucumán — Quilmes1:1
  • 27.05.2025Quilmes — San Martín de Tucumán1:2
  • 23.07.2024Quilmes — San Martín de Tucumán1:2
  • 05.03.2024San Martín de Tucumán — Quilmes0:0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →