Nigeria NPFL, round 9 · Monday, 19 October, (UTC+3)
Rivers United FC — Barau
Model prediction and result
0:0Missed
In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Rivers United FC to win (68%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 68% fails in about 32 matches out of 100 on average.
Rivers United FC are clear favourites: 68% against 10% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 31%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Rivers United FC are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Rivers United FC are 134 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Rivers United FC: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 2 meetings: Rivers United FC 1 win, Barau 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rivers United FC — Barau What is xG? | 1.6–0.5 | |
| Rivers United FC not to lose | 90% | |
| Barau not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 31% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 69% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 35% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 65% |
Form
- 11.10away · Abia Warriors0:0
- 04.10Ikorodu City2:0
- 30.09away · Katsina United1:1
- 28.09away · Ranchers Bees0:0
- 24.09Kun Khalifat5:0
- 11.10Enugu Rangers2:2
- 04.10away · Bendel Insurance1:4
- 26.09away · Sporting Lagos1:1
- 23.09Abia Warriors2:0
- 19.09away · Ikorodu City0:0
Head to head
- 25.02.2026Rivers United FC — Barau1:0
- 19.12.2025Barau — Rivers United FC4:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →