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Paraguayan Primera Division · Friday, 23 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio La Arboleda

Rubio Ñú — Guaraní

Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
Rubio Ñú24%
Draw31%
Guaraní45%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Guaraní to win (45%), came true.

Guaraní are clear favourites: 45% against 24% for the opponent, draw 31%.

2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Guaraní are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Guaraní are 58 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 3 meetings: Rubio Ñú 1 win, Guaraní 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rubio Ñú — Guaraní What is xG?0.8–1.3
Rubio Ñú not to lose55%
Guaraní not to lose76%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes44%
Both teams to score: no56%
Total over 2.538%
Total under 2.562%

Match events

  1. 27′Leandro Allende · Guaraní
  2. 28′William Mendieta · missed penalty · Rubio Ñú
  3. 42′Jorge Recalde · Guaraní0:1
  4. 47′Jorge Recalde · Guaraní0:2
  5. 73′Armando Méndez · Guaraní
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Estiven Pérez ↔ Lucas Montiel · Rubio Ñú
  2. 56′Mauricio de Carvalho ↔ William Mendieta · Rubio Ñú
  3. 56′Marcelo Acosta ↔ Rodrigo Rojas · Rubio Ñú
  4. 69′Aaron Páez ↔ Rodrigo Ruiz Díaz · Rubio Ñú
  5. 69′Elías Alfonso ↔ Sergio Fretes · Rubio Ñú
  6. 75′Martín Maldonado ↔ Jorge Recalde · Guaraní
  7. 76′Victor Céspedes ↔ Diego Fernández · Guaraní
  8. 81′Juan Manuel García ↔ Fernando Fernández · Guaraní
  9. 81′Jesús Llano ↔ Maximiliano Añasco · Guaraní
  10. 88′Carlos Arrúa ↔ Luis Martínez · Guaraní

Match statistics

Rubio ÑúGuaraní
  • 42Possession, %58
  • 6Shots21
  • 3On target7
  • 1Big chances1
  • 3Corners3
  • 13Fouls9
  • 2Offsides3
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Rubio Ñú

  1. GKLautaro Maldonado5.9
  2. DFBrian Blasi6.4
  3. DFMariano Ramos5.9
  4. DFPedro Álvarez6.3
  5. DFJavier Vallejos6.3
  6. MFTobías Leiva6.1
  7. MFWilliam Mendieta (C)56′6.5
  8. MFRodrigo Rojas56′5.5
  9. FWRodrigo Ruiz Díaz69′6.3
  10. FWSergio Fretes69′6.3
  11. FWLucas Montiel45′6.6
Came on (5)
  1. MFElías Alfonso21′6.3
  2. FWEstiven Pérez45′6.0
  3. MFMarcelo Acosta34′6.0
  4. FWAaron Páez21′6.4
  5. FWMauricio de Carvalho34′6.4

Guaraní

  1. GKMiguel Martínez7.6
  2. DFArmando Méndez7.9
  3. DFImanol Segovia8.1
  4. DFThiago Servín8.0
  5. DFLeandro Allende7.5
  6. MFLuis Martínez88′7.2
  7. MFFernando Fernández (C)81′7.1
  8. MFGiovanni Gómez7.2
  9. FWJorge Recalde75′9.3
  10. FWDiego Fernández76′7.1
  11. FWMaximiliano Añasco81′7.5
Came on (5)
  1. FWJuan Manuel García9′
  2. MFCarlos Arrúa2′
  3. MFJesús Llano9′
  4. FWVictor Céspedes14′6.5
  5. MFMartín Maldonado15′6.2

Form

Rubio Ñú

  • 17.10away · Recoleta0:1
  • 11.10Olimpia0:0
  • 06.10away · Sportivo Ameliano2:1
  • 26.092 de Mayo2:2
  • 20.09away · Cerro Porteño0:1

Guaraní

  • 17.10Nacional (PAR)0:2
  • 12.10away · Libertad2:2
  • 03.10Sportivo San Lorenzo1:1
  • 25.09away · Luqueño1:0
  • 18.09away · Sportivo Trinidense1:0

Head to head

  • 15.08.2026Guaraní — Rubio Ñú2:3
  • 02.04.2026Rubio Ñú — Guaraní0:2
  • 02.02.2026Guaraní — Rubio Ñú4:0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →