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Primera Nacional, round 34 · Monday, 19 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio La Ciudadela

San Martín de Tucumán — CA Ferrocarril Midland

Model prediction and result

3:2Came true
San Martín de Tucumán45%
Draw30%
CA Ferrocarril Midland25%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, San Martín de Tucumán to win (45%), came true.

San Martín de Tucumán are slightly stronger: 45% against 25%, draw 30%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: San Martín de Tucumán — CA Ferrocarril Midland What is xG?1.3–0.9
San Martín de Tucumán not to lose75%
CA Ferrocarril Midland not to lose55%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes47%
Both teams to score: no53%
Total over 2.541%
Total under 2.559%

Match events

  1. 31′Isaías Andrada · CA Ferrocarril Midland0:1
  2. 35′Agustín Graneros · San Martín de Tucumán
  3. 57′Genaro Cepeda · CA Ferrocarril Midland0:2
  4. 76′Víctor Salazar · San Martín de Tucumán
  5. 78′Matías García · San Martín de Tucumán1:2
  6. 85′Bruno Cabrera · San Martín de Tucumán2:2
  7. 92′Bruno Cabrera · San Martín de Tucumán3:2
  8. 95′Bruno Cabrera · San Martín de Tucumán
  9. 96′Luca Arfaras · San Martín de Tucumán
Substitutions (10)
  1. 10′Diego Diellos ↔ Mauro Véron · San Martín de Tucumán
  2. 30′Álvaro Veliez ↔ Alan Cisnero · San Martín de Tucumán
  3. 61′Luca Arfaras ↔ Gabriel Carabajal · San Martín de Tucumán
  4. 61′Nicolás Castro ↔ Santiago Briñone · San Martín de Tucumán
  5. 61′Matías García ↔ Agustín Graneros · San Martín de Tucumán
  6. 66′Uriel Guzmán ↔ Jeremías Perales · CA Ferrocarril Midland
  7. 66′Matías Flores ↔ Ramiro Luna · CA Ferrocarril Midland
  8. 77′Lautaro Laharque ↔ Jesús Camaño · CA Ferrocarril Midland
  9. 89′Rodrigo Cao ↔ Ezequiel Bulacio · CA Ferrocarril Midland
  10. 89′Mariano Penepil ↔ Isaías Andrada · CA Ferrocarril Midland

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

San Martín de Tucumán

  1. GKDarío Sand
  2. DFEzequiel Parnisari
  3. DFVíctor Salazar
  4. DFGuillermo Rodríguez
  5. DFRodrigo Ayala
  6. MFBruno Cabrera
  7. MFGabriel Carabajal61′
  8. MFAlan Cisnero30′
  9. MFSantiago Briñone61′
  10. MFAgustín Graneros61′
  11. FWMauro Véron10′
Came on (5)
  1. MFMatías García29′
  2. MFNicolás Castro29′
  3. FWDiego Diellos80′
  4. FWLuca Arfaras29′
  5. MFÁlvaro Veliez60′

CA Ferrocarril Midland

  1. GKMauro Leguiza
  2. DFLuciano Leonel Recalde
  3. DFIsaías Andrada89′
  4. DFGenaro Cepeda
  5. DFPablo Casarico
  6. MFRamiro Luna66′
  7. MFNicolás Violini
  8. MFJesús Camaño77′
  9. MFMarcos Roseti
  10. FWJeremías Perales66′
  11. FWEzequiel Bulacio89′
Came on (5)
  1. DFLautaro Laharque13′
  2. FWUriel Guzmán24′
  3. DFMariano Penepil1′
  4. FWRodrigo Cao1′
  5. FWMatías Flores24′

Form

San Martín de Tucumán

  • 11.10away · Atlanta0:1
  • 05.10Gimnasia y Tiro1:0
  • 28.09away · Gimnasia Jujuy2:2
  • 19.09away · Atlético Rafaela2:4
  • 14.09Agropecuario3:0

CA Ferrocarril Midland

  • 10.10Atlético Rafaela4:0
  • 04.10away · Agropecuario0:0
  • 27.09Tristán Suárez0:1
  • 20.09away · Atlético Güemes2:0
  • 13.09Chacarita Juniors1:0

Head to head

  • 31.05.2026CA Ferrocarril Midland — San Martín de Tucumán2:0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →