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Primera Nacional, round 34 · Monday, 19 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Dr. Osvaldo Francisco Baletto

San Telmo — CA Defensores de Belgrano

Model prediction and result

0:0Missed
San Telmo45%
Draw31%
CA Defensores de Belgrano24%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, San Telmo to win (45%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 45% fails in about 55 matches out of 100 on average.

San Telmo are clear favourites: 45% against 24% for the opponent, draw 31%.

2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • San Telmo are 97 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: San Telmo 2 wins, CA Defensores de Belgrano 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: San Telmo — CA Defensores de Belgrano What is xG?1.3–0.8
San Telmo not to lose76%
CA Defensores de Belgrano not to lose55%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes44%
Both teams to score: no56%
Total over 2.539%
Total under 2.561%

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

San Telmo

  1. GKJoaquín Enrico
  2. DFFacundo Roncaglia
  3. DFMartín González70′
  4. DFLeonel Pollacchi
  5. DFJuan Motroni
  6. DFPatricio Romero63′
  7. DFEmanuel Díaz
  8. MFElías Brítez
  9. FWNicolás Molina75′
  10. FWMartín Batallini63′
  11. FWJerónimo Porto70′
Came on (5)
  1. DFGabriel Paredes27′
  2. MFJavier Iritier27′
  3. MFCristian Núñez20′
  4. DFRomán Gamarra15′
  5. FWIñaki Larthirigoyen20′

CA Defensores de Belgrano

  1. GKAlejandro Medina
  2. DFLeonel Gigli
  3. DFBrian Gómez
  4. DFIan Pérez
  5. MFLeonardo Landriel
  6. MFPatricio Moyano55′
  7. MFNicolás Borsotti
  8. MFJuan De Tomasso
  9. MFLuis Jerez Silva55′
  10. FWEzequiel Aguirre
  11. FWEnzo González46′
Came on (3)
  1. MFLeandro Ciccolini35′
  2. FWFrancisco Tcherkaski44′
  3. DFGonzalo Gamarra35′

Form

San Telmo

  • 12.10away · Ciudad de Bolívar0:1
  • 04.10Almirante Brown3:2
  • 27.09away · Club Atlético Mitre2:0
  • 19.09Club Atlético Estudiantes0:1
  • 12.09away · All Boys1:0

CA Defensores de Belgrano

  • 11.10Acassuso0:3
  • 04.10away · CA Chaco For Ever2:2
  • 27.09Ferro Carril Oeste0:1
  • 20.09away · Central Norte1:0
  • 14.09Deportivo Madryn2:1

Head to head

  • 30.05.2026CA Defensores de Belgrano — San Telmo1:0
  • 31.07.2025CA Defensores de Belgrano — San Telmo1:2
  • 23.02.2025San Telmo — CA Defensores de Belgrano0:3
  • 18.08.2024San Telmo — CA Defensores de Belgrano1:2
  • 01.04.2024CA Defensores de Belgrano — San Telmo0:1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →