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Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Thursday, 22 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Santa Fe — CD Jaguares

Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Santa Fe73%
Draw18%
CD Jaguares9%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Santa Fe to win (73%), came true.

Santa Fe are clear favourites: 73% against 9% for the opponent, draw 18%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Santa Fe are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
  • Santa Fe are 329 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Santa Fe 2 wins, CD Jaguares 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Santa Fe — CD Jaguares What is xG?2.2–0.7
Santa Fe not to lose91%
CD Jaguares not to lose27%
No draw82%
Both teams to score: yes47%
Both teams to score: no53%
Total over 2.556%
Total under 2.544%

Match events

  1. 5′Franco Fagúndez · Santa Fe1:0
  2. 61′Jonathan Lovera · CD Jaguares
  3. 77′Franco Fagúndez · Santa Fe
  4. 81′Franco Fagúndez · Santa Fe2:0
  5. 92′Andrés Rentería · CD Jaguares2:1
  6. 92′Omar Fernández · Santa Fe
Substitutions (10)
  1. 12′Mateo Puerta ↔ Christian Mafla · Santa Fe
  2. 56′Kilian Toscano ↔ Jhojan Torres · Santa Fe
  3. 56′Alexis Zapata ↔ Emerson Rodríguez · Santa Fe
  4. 63′Cristian Álvarez ↔ Esteban Beltrán · CD Jaguares
  5. 63′Jose Yanez ↔ Royscer Colpa · CD Jaguares
  6. 69′Jerson Malagón ↔ Jonathan Lovera · CD Jaguares
  7. 69′Darwin López ↔ Wilfrido De La Rosa · CD Jaguares
  8. 74′Luis Palacios ↔ Daniel Torres · Santa Fe
  9. 74′Omar Fernández ↔ Jáder Obrian · Santa Fe
  10. 84′Santiago Cubides ↔ Johar Mejía · CD Jaguares

Match statistics

Santa FeCD Jaguares
  • 0.80Expected goals (xG)1.29
  • 50Possession, %50
  • 17Shots16
  • 6On target2
  • 2Big chances2
  • 5Corners4
  • 11Fouls14
  • 2Offsides0
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Santa Fe

  1. GKWeimar Asprilla6.4
  2. DFHelibelton Palacios7.3
  3. DFEmanuel Olivera6.8
  4. DFChristian Mafla12′6.1
  5. DFIván Scarpeta7.3
  6. MFDaniel Torres74′7.2
  7. MFJhojan Torres56′7.0
  8. MFFranco Fagúndez9.2
  9. FWEmerson Rodríguez56′6.7
  10. FWHugo Rodallega (C)7.9
  11. FWJáder Obrian74′6.9
Came on (5)
  1. FWKilian Toscano34′6.4
  2. FWLuis Palacios16′6.1
  3. MFAlexis Zapata34′6.8
  4. DFMateo Puerta78′6.9
  5. FWOmar Fernández16′6.4

CD Jaguares

  1. GKFranklin Mosquera6.0
  2. DFCarlos Henao6.7
  3. DFLuis Jiménez6.5
  4. DFJuan Franco6.0
  5. DFJonathan Lovera69′6.6
  6. MFRafael Bustamante6.8
  7. MFRoyscer Colpa63′6.4
  8. MFEsteban Beltrán63′6.5
  9. FWJohar Mejía84′7.0
  10. FWAndrés Rentería (C)7.5
  11. FWWilfrido De La Rosa69′6.0
Came on (5)
  1. DFJerson Malagón21′6.2
  2. FWSantiago Cubides6′
  3. FWDarwin López21′6.1
  4. MFCristian Álvarez27′7.9
  5. MFJose Yanez27′6.6

Form

Santa Fe

  • 19.10away · Llaneros FC0:1
  • 06.10away · Independiente Medellín1:0
  • 29.09away · Deportivo Pereira2:1
  • 23.09Deportivo Cali0:1
  • 20.09away · Alianza FC4:1

CD Jaguares

  • 18.10away · Millonarios1:4
  • 12.10Tolima3:2
  • 03.10away · Águilas Doradas0:2
  • 28.09Alianza FC1:2
  • 23.09away · Independiente Medellín1:2

Head to head

  • 18.02.2026CD Jaguares — Santa Fe3:1
  • 15.11.2024Santa Fe — CD Jaguares3:0
  • 29.04.2024CD Jaguares — Santa Fe1:0
  • 20.07.2023Santa Fe — CD Jaguares1:0
  • 28.01.2023CD Jaguares — Santa Fe2:2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 73% will not happen in roughly 27 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →