Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
SC Bastia — Furiani Agliani
Model prediction and result
0:1Missed
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, SC Bastia to win (64%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 64% fails in about 36 matches out of 100 on average.
SC Bastia are clear favourites: 64% against 15% for the opponent, draw 21%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings SC Bastia are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- SC Bastia are 284 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: SC Bastia — Furiani Agliani What is xG? | 2.1–0.9 | |
| SC Bastia not to lose | 85% | |
| Furiani Agliani not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
Form
- 09.05Le Mans0:2
- 02.05away · Guingamp1:0
- 24.04away · Clermont Foot1:1
- 18.04Saint-Étienne2:0
- 11.04away · Red Star3:4
- 15.11away · Sarreguemines FC3:5
- 25.10Balagne FC2:1
- 10.12away · Entente SSG0:1
- 19.11away · Noisy le Sec2:0
- 29.10FC Bastia-Borgo2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →