Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
SC Toulon — US Mandelieu la Napoule
Model prediction and result
1:1Missed
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, SC Toulon to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
SC Toulon are slightly stronger: 44% against 30%, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- SC Toulon are 117 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: SC Toulon — US Mandelieu la Napoule What is xG? | 1.5–1.2 | |
| SC Toulon not to lose | 70% | |
| US Mandelieu la Napoule not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
Form
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →