La Liga, round 12 · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)
Sevilla — Deportivo Alavés
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 6 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sevilla are clear favourites: 46% against 24% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Sevilla are 87 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Sevilla — No. 5, 14 pts; Deportivo Alavés — No. 7, 11 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Deportivo Alavés: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Sevilla 1 win, Deportivo Alavés 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sevilla — Deportivo Alavés What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Sevilla not to lose | 76% | |
| Deportivo Alavés not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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- Handicap Sevilla
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- Deportivo Alavés goals
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Form
- 12.10away · Levante3:3
- 19.09Barcelona1:3
- 16.09away · Deportivo A Coruña1:0
- 11.09Valencia1:0
- 06.09away · Espanyol1:1
- 10.10Atlético Madrid1:2
- 19.09away · Athletic Club0:0
- 15.09Valencia0:1
- 12.09away · Racing Santander1:2
- 06.09Osasuna5:2
Head to head
- 14.02.2026Sevilla — Deportivo Alavés1:1
- 17.12.2025Deportivo Alavés — Sevilla1:0
- 20.09.2025Deportivo Alavés — Sevilla1:2
- 20.04.2025Sevilla — Deportivo Alavés1:1
- 20.09.2024Deportivo Alavés — Sevilla2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Champions League | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruña | 9 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →