Nigeria NPFL, round 9 · Friday, 16 October, (UTC+3)
Shooting Stars — Ranchers Bees
Model prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Shooting Stars to win (59%), came true.
Shooting Stars are clear favourites: 59% against 17% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Shooting Stars are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Shooting Stars are 77 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Shooting Stars: winless in 5; Ranchers Bees: winless in 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Shooting Stars — Ranchers Bees What is xG? | 1.6–0.7 | |
| Shooting Stars not to lose | 83% | |
| Ranchers Bees not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
Match events
- 14′Desmond Ojietefian · Shooting Stars1:0
- 38′Isah Ndala · Ranchers Bees1:1
- 48′Damilola Akinola · Shooting Stars2:1
- 72′Qamar Adegoke · Shooting Stars3:1
Form
- 11.10away · Kun Khalifat0:2
- 07.10Kano Pillars0:0
- 04.10Nasarawa United0:0
- 30.09away · Enyimba2:4
- 27.09away · Warri Wolves FC0:1
- 10.10Niger Tornadoes0:0
- 04.10away · Kwara United1:2
- 28.09Rivers United FC0:0
- 23.09away · Enugu Rangers0:1
- 19.09Bendel Insurance2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →