Russian Cup, round 6 · Tuesday, 3 November, (UTC+3) · Stadion Tekstilshchik
Spartak Kostroma — Volna Nizhny Novgorod
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Spartak Kostroma to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
Spartak Kostroma are slightly stronger: 44% against 30%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Spartak Kostroma are 124 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Spartak Kostroma — Volna Nizhny Novgorod What is xG? | 1.5–1.2 | |
| Spartak Kostroma not to lose | 70% | |
| Volna Nizhny Novgorod not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Spartak Kostroma
- Spartak Kostroma goals
- Volna Nizhny Novgorod goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 8′Mikhail Zabotkin · Volna Nizhny Novgorod0:1
- 42′Artemiy Gunko · Volna Nizhny Novgorod0:2
- 44′Armin Spahic · Spartak Kostroma1:2
- 53′Kirill Bogdanets · Volna Nizhny Novgorod1:3
- 65′Nikolay Tarasov · Spartak Kostroma2:3
Form
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →