Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
St Emilion — Rochefort
Model prediction and result
0:3Missed
In short
Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, St Emilion to win (37%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 37% fails in about 63 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: St Emilion 37%, Rochefort 36%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- St Emilion are 57 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: St Emilion — Rochefort What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| St Emilion not to lose | 64% | |
| Rochefort not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
Form
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →