Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
ST Lo Manche — Caen
Model prediction and result
0:2Came true
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Caen to win (51%), came true.
Caen are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Caen are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Caen are 95 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: ST Lo Manche — Caen What is xG? | 1.1–1.7 | |
| ST Lo Manche not to lose | 49% | |
| Caen not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
Form
- 25.10away · Yvetot AC2:3
- 16.11Dives-Cabourg1:1
- 26.10AG Caen5:0
- 13.11Stade Briochin1:2
- 30.10Caen PTT1:0
- 15.11away · Bayeux2:3
- 25.10away · Alizay4:0
- 10.05away · SC Bastia1:2
- 02.05Red Star1:1
- 26.04away · Lorient0:4
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →