Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
Stade Bordelais — Mérignac Arlac
Model prediction and result
4:1Came true
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Stade Bordelais to win (40%), came true.
Stade Bordelais are slightly stronger: 40% against 33%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Stade Bordelais are 86 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Stade Bordelais — Mérignac Arlac What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Stade Bordelais not to lose | 67% | |
| Mérignac Arlac not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
Form
- 26.10away · Thouars Foot 790:1
- 29.10Bordeaux0:3
- 15.10away · Parthenay Viennay1:0
- 27.11away · Bergerac Perigord0:4
- 13.11Muret AS2:1
- 17.11away · Beaumont St Cyr0:1
- 26.10Stade Poitevin3:0
- 29.10Niort0:1
- 16.10Sportive Gueretoise3:0
- 14.02Stade Poitevin1:4
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →