Ligue 1, round 10 · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)
Toulouse — Strasbourg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 6 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Toulouse are clear favourites: 54% against 22% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Toulouse are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Toulouse are 65 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Toulouse — No. 7, 9 pts; Strasbourg — No. 12, 7 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Toulouse: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Toulouse 2 wins, Strasbourg 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toulouse — Strasbourg What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Toulouse not to lose | 78% | |
| Strasbourg not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Toulouse
- Toulouse goals
- Strasbourg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 16.10away · Le Mans3:0
- 10.10away · Monaco2:2
- 19.09Le Havre3:2
- 12.09away · Lorient2:2
- 03.09Lille0:1
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Strasbourg — Toulouse1:2
- 06.12.2025Toulouse — Strasbourg1:0
- 16.03.2025Strasbourg — Toulouse2:1
- 12.01.2025Toulouse — Strasbourg1:2
- 07.04.2024Toulouse — Strasbourg0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Brest | 6 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 11 | Lens | 6 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Angers | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →