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Primera Nacional, round 34 · Saturday, 17 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio 20 de Octubre

Tristán Suárez — Patronato de Parana

Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Tristán Suárez63%
Draw25%
Patronato de Parana12%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Tristán Suárez to win (63%), came true.

Tristán Suárez are clear favourites: 63% against 12% for the opponent, draw 25%.

1.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 31%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Tristán Suárez are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Tristán Suárez are 225 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Tristán Suárez: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Tristán Suárez 1 win, Patronato de Parana 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Tristán Suárez — Patronato de Parana What is xG?1.4–0.5
Tristán Suárez not to lose88%
Patronato de Parana not to lose37%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes31%
Both teams to score: no69%
Total over 2.534%
Total under 2.566%

Match events

  1. 11′Santiago Piccioni · Patronato de Parana
  2. 25′Diego Becker · penalty · Tristán Suárez1:0
  3. 61′Franco Meritello · Patronato de Parana
  4. 69′Renzo Conechny · Tristán Suárez
  5. 85′Tomás Attis · Patronato de Parana
  6. 86′Juan Salas · Patronato de Parana
  7. 87′Nicolás Sánchez · Tristán Suárez
  8. 94′Agustín Baldi · Tristán Suárez
Substitutions (8)
  1. 46′Fernando Moreyra ↔ Santiago Piccioni · Patronato de Parana
  2. 46′Tomás Attis ↔ Juan Pablo Barinaga · Patronato de Parana
  3. 46′Alejo Miró ↔ Renzo Reynaga · Patronato de Parana
  4. 72′Sebastián Ramírez ↔ Diego Becker · Tristán Suárez
  5. 72′Nicolás Sánchez ↔ Renzo Conechny · Tristán Suárez
  6. 80′Augusto Berrondo ↔ Jonathan Berón · Tristán Suárez
  7. 88′Gonzalo Salega ↔ Alejo Miró · Patronato de Parana
  8. 94′Diego Mastrángelo ↔ Nicolás Fernández · Tristán Suárez

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Tristán Suárez

  1. GKJoaquín Bigo
  2. DFAgustín Baldi
  3. DFBrian Aguilar
  4. DFManuel Guillén
  5. DFMauricio Guzmán
  6. DFNicolás Fernández
  7. MFNicolás Del Priore
  8. MFMarcos Enrique
  9. MFDiego Becker72′
  10. FWJonathan Berón80′
  11. FWRenzo Conechny72′
Came on (3)
  1. FWSebastián Ramírez18′
  2. FWAugusto Berrondo10′
  3. MFNicolás Sánchez18′

Patronato de Parana

  1. GKAlan Sosa
  2. DFSantiago Piccioni46′
  3. DFWalter Rueda
  4. DFFernando Evangelista
  5. DFFranco Meritello
  6. MFJuan Pablo Barinaga46′
  7. MFValentín Pereyra
  8. MFJuan Salas
  9. MFAugusto Picco
  10. FWFranco Soldano
  11. FWRenzo Reynaga46′
Came on (4)
  1. MFAlejo Miró42′
  2. FWTomás Attis44′
  3. MFGonzalo Salega2′
  4. DFFernando Moreyra44′

Form

Tristán Suárez

  • 10.10away · Colegiales0:0
  • 03.10Quilmes0:0
  • 27.09away · CA Ferrocarril Midland1:0
  • 21.09Atlanta0:0
  • 16.09away · San Martín San Juan0:0

Patronato de Parana

  • 11.10Atlético Güemes2:0
  • 04.10away · Chacarita Juniors0:1
  • 27.09San Martín San Juan3:0
  • 22.09away · Nueva Chicago1:1
  • 13.09Temperley0:0

Head to head

  • 31.05.2026Patronato de Parana — Tristán Suárez1:1
  • 06.07.2025Patronato de Parana — Tristán Suárez2:0
  • 02.03.2025Tristán Suárez — Patronato de Parana2:0
  • 07.07.2024Patronato de Parana — Tristán Suárez3:0
  • 17.02.2024Tristán Suárez — Patronato de Parana0:1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →