Ligue 1, round 11 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)
Troyes — Le Havre
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Troyes 39%, Le Havre 33%, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Le Havre are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Troyes higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Troyes — No. 16, 8 pts; Le Havre — No. 18, 2 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Le Havre: 5 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Troyes — Le Havre What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Troyes not to lose | 67% | |
| Le Havre not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Troyes
- Troyes goals
- Le Havre goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Troyes | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| xG per match | 1.19 | 1.59 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.48 | 1.81 |
| Shots | 13.4 | 15.1 |
| On target | 3.3 | 4.9 |
| Corners | 6.6 | 4.9 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 41 | 46 |
Form
- 30.10Paris Saint-Germain1:5
- 25.10away · Marseille3:4
- 18.10Auxerre1:3
- 10.10away · Lille0:1
- 19.09away · Toulouse2:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →