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Botola Pro (Morocco), round 5 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3) · Al Medina Stadium

Union Touarga Sport — Wydad Casablanca

Model prediction and result

0:1Missed
Union Touarga Sport36%
Draw33%
Wydad Casablanca31%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (33%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 33% fails in about 67 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Union Touarga Sport 36%, Wydad Casablanca 31%, draw 33%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.2).

Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Wydad Casablanca are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Union Touarga Sport are 100 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Union Touarga Sport 1 win, Wydad Casablanca 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Union Touarga Sport — Wydad Casablanca What is xG?1.1–1.1
Union Touarga Sport not to lose69%
Wydad Casablanca not to lose64%
No draw67%
Both teams to score: yes48%
Both teams to score: no52%
Total over 2.538%
Total under 2.562%

Match events

  1. 9′Aymane El Hassouni · penalty · Wydad Casablanca0:1
  2. 49′Oussama Zemraoui · Wydad Casablanca
  3. 49′Mohamed Moufid · Wydad Casablanca
  4. 50′Aymane El Hassouni · Wydad Casablanca
  5. 66′Issoufou Dayo · Wydad Casablanca
  6. 75′Youssef Kajai · Union Touarga Sport
Substitutions (8)
  1. 9′Danny ↔ Hamza Regragui · Union Touarga Sport
  2. 58′Ayoub Ajerrar ↔ Omar Arjoune · Union Touarga Sport
  3. 71′Hamza Hannouri ↔ Aymane El Hassouni · Wydad Casablanca
  4. 71′Yassine Jabrane ↔ Silvère Ganvoula · Wydad Casablanca
  5. 72′Youssef Ait M'barek ↔ Anas Nanah · Union Touarga Sport
  6. 72′Youness Akharraz ↔ Saad Lotfi · Union Touarga Sport
  7. 93′Yahya Jabrane ↔ Nizar Al Rashdan · Wydad Casablanca
  8. 94′Haitam Hamani ↔ Oussama Zemraoui · Wydad Casablanca

Match statistics

Union Touarga SportWydad Casablanca
  • 51Possession, %49
  • 7Shots5
  • 5On target2
  • 7Corners4
  • 1Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Union Touarga Sport

  1. GKMohamed Reda Asmama
  2. DFAnas Nanah72′
  3. DFYoussef Kajai
  4. DFMehdi Ashabi
  5. DFRedouane Ait Lemkadem
  6. MFHamza Regragui9′
  7. MFWalid Rhailouf
  8. MFAdam Chakir
  9. MFOmar Arjoune58′
  10. FWSaad Lotfi72′
  11. FWMouad Dahak
Came on (4)
  1. DFYouness Akharraz18′
  2. FWAyoub Ajerrar32′
  3. MFDanny81′
  4. MFYoussef Ait M'barek18′

Wydad Casablanca

  1. GKRachid Ghanimi
  2. DFYahia Attiyat Allah
  3. DFMohamed Moufid
  4. DFIssoufou Dayo
  5. DFSallah Moussaddaq
  6. MFNizar Al Rashdan
  7. MFAdil Khalloufi
  8. MFAymane El Hassouni71′
  9. MFJoseph Bakasu
  10. FWSilvère Ganvoula71′
  11. FWOussama Zemraoui
Came on (2)
  1. FWYassine Jabrane19′
  2. FWHamza Hannouri19′

Form

Union Touarga Sport

  • 17.10away · CODM Meknès0:1
  • 08.10RS Berkane0:0
  • 02.10away · Widad Temara1:0
  • 26.09FUS Rabat2:1
  • 05.07away · Wydad Casablanca2:1

Wydad Casablanca

  • 18.10US Amal Tiznit1:1
  • 11.10CODM Meknès0:0
  • 03.10away · Difaâ El Jadida2:0
  • 26.09Widad Temara1:3
  • 05.07Union Touarga Sport1:2

Head to head

  • 05.07.2026Wydad Casablanca — Union Touarga Sport1:2
  • 09.03.2026Union Touarga Sport — Wydad Casablanca3:4
  • 12.01.2025Wydad Casablanca — Union Touarga Sport2:1
  • 20.09.2024Union Touarga Sport — Wydad Casablanca1:1
  • 09.03.2024Wydad Casablanca — Union Touarga Sport0:0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →