Chilean Liga de Primera, round 27 · Monday, 9 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo
Universidad de Concepción — O'Higgins
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 9 November
In short
O'Higgins are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 28%.
The model expects few goals: 2.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings O'Higgins are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Universidad de Concepción — No. 15, 23 pts; O'Higgins — No. 12, 31 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Universidad de Concepción: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Universidad de Concepción — O'Higgins What is xG? | 1.1–1.4 | |
| Universidad de Concepción not to lose | 58% | |
| O'Higgins not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
Model vs market
The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Total over 2.5” at 48%, the market at 53%.
- Universidad de Concepción to winModel30%odds 3.33Market32%odds 3.14
- DrawModel28%odds 3.57Market27%odds 3.68
- O'Higgins to winModel42%odds 2.38Market41%odds 2.44
- Total over 2.5Model48%odds 2.08Market53%odds 1.90
- Total under 2.5Model52%odds 1.92Market47%odds 2.11
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Universidad de Concepción
- Universidad de Concepción goals
- O'Higgins goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Universidad de Concepción | O'Higgins |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 12.2 | 16.2 |
| On target | 3.5 | 5.1 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 5.6 |
| Cards | 3.9 | 2.5 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 56 |
Form
- 31.10away · Colo Colo1:6
- 26.10Deportes Limache0:1
- 10.10away · Cobresal1:1
- 03.10Huachipato0:2
- 07.09away · Palestino1:2
- 01.11Ñublense1:0
- 25.10Cobresal1:1
- 10.10away · Huachipato0:2
- 14.09away · Audax Italiano0:1
- 06.09Unión La Calera2:1
Head to head
- 17.05.2026O'Higgins — Universidad de Concepción0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | La Serena | 26 | 8 | -3 | 34 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 26 | 9 | -9 | 31 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 26 | 7 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 26 | 7 | -10 | 27 |
| 15, Relegation | Universidad de Concepción | 26 | 6 | -28 | 23 |
| 16, Relegation | Unión La Calera | 26 | 5 | -20 | 21 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →