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Botola Pro (Morocco), round 5 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3) · Stade El Massira

US Amal Tiznit — CODM Meknès

Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
US Amal Tiznit33%
Draw29%
CODM Meknès38%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, CODM Meknès to win (38%), came true.

Evenly matched: US Amal Tiznit 33%, CODM Meknès 38%, draw 29%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 2.2.

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: US Amal Tiznit — CODM Meknès What is xG?1.2–1.4
US Amal Tiznit not to lose62%
CODM Meknès not to lose67%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

Match events

  1. 16′Ayoub Lakhlifi · CODM Meknès0:1
  2. 36′Mamadou Tounkara · US Amal Tiznit
  3. 75′Ayoub Lourhraz · CODM Meknès
  4. 82′Taoufik Razko · CODM Meknès0:2
  5. 85′Zakaria Essalhi · US Amal Tiznit1:2
Substitutions (8)
  1. 61′Yassine Miloudi ↔ Willy Onana · CODM Meknès
  2. 65′Youssef Anouar ↔ Saliu Popoola · US Amal Tiznit
  3. 65′Nourddine Koumah ↔ Ayoub Adila · US Amal Tiznit
  4. 77′Hassan Boulaabar ↔ Yassine Zraa · US Amal Tiznit
  5. 77′Othman Fadiz ↔ Yllan Ait-Ouarab · US Amal Tiznit
  6. 78′Joseph Gnadou ↔ Zakaria Bahrou · CODM Meknès
  7. 78′Taoufik Razko ↔ Mohamed Zrida · CODM Meknès
  8. 89′Badr Gaddarine ↔ Saad El Morsli · CODM Meknès

Match statistics

US Amal TiznitCODM Meknès
  • 53Possession, %47
  • 10Shots6
  • 8On target3
  • 6Corners3
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

US Amal Tiznit

  1. GKYoussef Faqir
  2. DFJad Assouab
  3. DFAyoub El Malki
  4. DFHatim Bouhbouh
  5. MFMamadou Tounkara
  6. MFAyoub Adila65′
  7. MFSaliu Popoola65′
  8. MFOmar Housni
  9. MFYllan Ait-Ouarab77′
  10. FWZakaria Essalhi
  11. FWYassine Zraa77′
Came on (4)
  1. FWYoussef Anouar25′
  2. MFOthman Fadiz13′
  3. MFNourddine Koumah25′
  4. FWHassan Boulaabar13′

CODM Meknès

  1. GKAnas Zniti
  2. DFAyoub Lourhraz
  3. DFKarim El Bounagate
  4. DFSaad El Morsli89′
  5. DFAyoub Lakhlifi
  6. MFLarbi Naji
  7. MFHamza El Janati
  8. MFMohamed Zrida78′
  9. FWHamza El Wasti
  10. FWWilly Onana61′
  11. FWZakaria Bahrou78′
Came on (4)
  1. MFTaoufik Razko12′
  2. MFYassine Miloudi29′
  3. FWJoseph Gnadou12′
  4. DFBadr Gaddarine1′

Form

US Amal Tiznit

  • 18.10away · Wydad Casablanca1:1
  • 10.10Difaâ El Jadida2:5
  • 02.10away · FUS Rabat1:0
  • 24.09Ittihad Tanger1:3

CODM Meknès

  • 17.10Union Touarga Sport1:0
  • 11.10away · Wydad Casablanca0:0
  • 03.10KACM0:1
  • 26.09away · Difaâ El Jadida6:2
  • 05.07away · Ittihad Tanger1:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →