Brazilian Serie A, round 34 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Vitória — Fluminense
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Evenly matched: Vitória 35%, Fluminense 35%, draw 30%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Fluminense are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Fluminense are 58 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Vitória — No. 16, 38 pts; Fluminense — No. 4, 54 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
- Vitória: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Vitória 2 wins, Fluminense 1, 2 draws.
- Days of rest before the match: Vitória 7, Fluminense 9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vitória — Fluminense What is xG? | 1.2–1.2 | |
| Vitória not to lose | 65% | |
| Fluminense not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
Model vs market
The model agrees with the market: no outcome differs by more than 3 points.
- Vitória to winModel35%odds 2.86Market34%odds 2.98
- DrawModel30%odds 3.33Market29%odds 3.48
- Fluminense to winModel35%odds 2.86Market38%odds 2.65
- Total over 2.5Model44%odds 2.27Market47%odds 2.15
- Total under 2.5Model56%odds 1.79Market53%odds 1.87
- Both teams to score: yesModel51%odds 1.96Market54%odds 1.86
- Both teams to score: noModel49%odds 2.04Market46%odds 2.16
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- Handicap Vitória
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- Fluminense goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Vitória | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.18 | 1.50 |
| Shots | 12.7 | 11.6 |
| On target | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Corners | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 59 |
Form
- 31.10away · Coritiba0:2
- 24.10Athletico Paranaense1:1
- 20.10away · Corinthians1:1
- 11.10away · São Paulo1:2
- 08.10Chapecoense4:0
- 29.10Internacional2:1
- 25.10away · Chapecoense1:2
- 22.10away · Palmeiras1:0
- 18.10Santos1:2
- 15.10Palmeiras1:2
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Fluminense — Vitória2:2
- 20.09.2025Vitória — Fluminense0:1
- 21.04.2025Fluminense — Vitória1:1
- 26.10.2024Vitória — Fluminense2:1
- 28.06.2024Fluminense — Vitória0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | +6 | 57 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 33 | 15 | +10 | 54 |
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 33 | 15 | +10 | 54 |
| 15 | Vasco da Gama | 32 | 10 | -9 | 38 |
| 16 | Vitória | 33 | 10 | -13 | 38 |
| 17, Relegation | Grêmio | 33 | 9 | -7 | 37 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →