A-League Men (Australia), round 5 · Sunday, 22 November, 05:00 (UTC+3)

Wellington Phoenix — Macarthur FC

Model prediction for 22 November

Wellington Phoenix41%

Draw30%

Macarthur FC30%

Model estimate at 08:25 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Wellington Phoenix are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 30%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 63%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Wellington Phoenix are 129 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Wellington Phoenix — No. 1, 9 pts; Macarthur FC — No. 3, 5 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
Wellington Phoenix: 3 wins in a row; Macarthur FC: unbeaten in 4.
Last 5 meetings: Wellington Phoenix 2 wins, Macarthur FC 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Wellington Phoenix — Macarthur FC What is xG?		1.6–1.4
Wellington Phoenix not to lose		70%
Macarthur FC not to lose		59%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		63%
Both teams to score: no		37%
Total over 2.5		57%
Total under 2.5		43%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix goals
Macarthur FC goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Wellington Phoenix	Macarthur FC
Goals scored per match	1.5	1.6
Goals conceded per match	1.0	1.8
xG per match	1.54	1.15
Opponents’ xG	1.33	1.59
Shots	12.8	12.2
On target	4.1	4.2
Corners	6.4	4.8
Cards	1.1	2.5
Possession, %	42	47

Averages per match: Wellington Phoenix — the last 10, Macarthur FC — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Wellington Phoenix

31.10away · Newcastle Jets3:0
25.10Central Coast Mariners2:0
18.10Melbourne Victory2:1
24.04away · Macarthur FC0:4
18.04Western Sydney Wanderers FC2:1

Macarthur FC

31.10Western Sydney Wanderers FC0:0
24.10away · Newcastle Jets1:1
17.10Perth Glory2:1
24.04Wellington Phoenix4:0
19.04away · Adelaide United1:3

Head to head

24.04.2026Macarthur FC — Wellington Phoenix4:0
22.11.2025Wellington Phoenix — Macarthur FC0:1
20.01.2025Macarthur FC — Wellington Phoenix1:2
14.12.2024Wellington Phoenix — Macarthur FC1:2
27.04.2024Wellington Phoenix — Macarthur FC3:0

Full record: 15 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Finals series	Wellington Phoenix	3	3	0	7–1	+6	9
2, Finals series	Western Sydney Wanderers FC	3	1	2	5–2	+3	5
3, Finals series	Macarthur FC	3	1	2	3–2	+1	5
4, Finals series	Brisbane Roar FC	2	1	1	3–2	+1	4

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →