Polish Ekstraklasa, round 15 · Monday, 23 November, 21:00 (UTC+3)

Wieczysta Kraków — Motor Lublin

Model prediction for 23 November

Wieczysta Kraków38%

Draw27%

Motor Lublin35%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Wieczysta Kraków 38%, Motor Lublin 35%, draw 27%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.

Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 68%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

League table: Wieczysta Kraków — No. 18, 8 pts; Motor Lublin — No. 11, 16 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
Wieczysta Kraków: 4 defeats in a row; Motor Lublin: unbeaten in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Wieczysta Kraków — Motor Lublin What is xG?		1.8–1.6
Wieczysta Kraków not to lose		65%
Motor Lublin not to lose		62%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		68%
Both teams to score: no		32%
Total over 2.5		62%
Total under 2.5		38%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków goals
Motor Lublin goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Wieczysta Kraków	Motor Lublin
Goals scored per match	1.1	1.5
Goals conceded per match	1.9	1.5
xG per match	1.77	2.01
Opponents’ xG	1.96	1.28
Shots	16.3	17.9
On target	4.7	5.9
Corners	6.6	5.1
Cards	1.6	1.9
Possession, %	57	49

Averages per match: Wieczysta Kraków — the last 10, Motor Lublin — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Wieczysta Kraków

31.10Jagiellonia Białystok1:3
25.10away · Śląsk Wrocław0:2
16.10Raków Częstochowa1:2
12.10away · GKS Katowice1:2
09.10Wisła Płock3:0

Motor Lublin

30.10away · Cracovia2:1
23.10Zagłębie Lubin2:2
17.10Śląsk Wrocław3:2
12.10away · Radomiak Radom3:2
19.09Górnik Zabrze0:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10	Korona Kielce	13	5	3	5	14–19	-5	18
11	Motor Lublin	13	4	4	5	19–22	-3	16
12	Wisła Płock	12	4	3	5	12–18	-6	15
17, Relegation	Raków Częstochowa	13	3	0	10	19–29	-10	9
18, Relegation	Wieczysta Kraków	13	2	2	9	17–26	-9	8

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →