Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 12 · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)
Willem II — PEC Zwolle
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 6 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Willem II 33%, PEC Zwolle 38%, draw 29%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Willem II — No. 18, 2 pts; PEC Zwolle — No. 16, 4 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Willem II: 3 defeats in a row; PEC Zwolle: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: Willem II 1 win, PEC Zwolle 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Willem II — PEC Zwolle What is xG? | 1.5–1.6 | |
| Willem II not to lose | 62% | |
| PEC Zwolle not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Willem II
- Willem II goals
- PEC Zwolle goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · FC Utrecht1:3
- 19.09Fortuna Sittard0:1
- 15.09away · Ajax1:5
- 11.09away · AZ Alkmaar1:1
- 05.09Excelsior0:3
- 11.10Cambuur0:1
- 18.09away · FC Groningen0:3
- 13.09Feyenoord0:7
- 04.09away · Sparta Rotterdam2:2
- 29.08NEC Nijmegen1:3
Head to head
- 14.05.2025Willem II — PEC Zwolle1:2
- 13.12.2024PEC Zwolle — Willem II0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | -15 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | -10 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation | Willem II | 8 | 0 | -16 | 2 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →