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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)

Aktobe — Gornyak Rudny

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Model prediction for 18 November

Aktobe14%
Draw in regulation15%
Gornyak Rudny70%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Gornyak Rudny are clear favourites: 81% to win including overtime and shootout.

6.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 66%.

Why

  • Gornyak Rudny are more dangerous in attack: 4.2 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Aktobe — No. 8, 13 pts; Gornyak Rudny — No. 6, 29 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Aktobe 0 wins, Gornyak Rudny 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Aktobe — Gornyak Rudny2.2–4.2
Aktobe to win (incl. OT and shootout)19%
Gornyak Rudny to win (incl. OT and shootout)81%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)66%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)34%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Aktobe
  • Aktobe goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Aktobe

  • 30.10away · Pavlodar7:4
  • 29.10away · Pavlodar5:2
  • 26.10away · Torpedo1:3
  • 25.10away · Torpedo2:4
  • 21.10Kulager1:4

Gornyak Rudny

  • 30.10Kokshetau0:4
  • 29.10Kokshetau2:3
  • 25.10Nomad Astana6:0
  • 24.10Nomad Astana1:3
  • 20.10away · Karaganda2:3

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Gornyak Rudny — Aktobe7:1
  • 02.10.2026Gornyak Rudny — Aktobe3:1
  • 11.02.2026Aktobe — Gornyak Rudny1:3
  • 10.02.2026Aktobe — Gornyak Rudny3:6
  • 23.12.2025Gornyak Rudny — Aktobe3:1

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, PlayoffsKulager24135687–62+2531
6, PlayoffsGornyak Rudny261411190–68+2229
7, PlayoffsAlmaty261111466–92-2623
8, PlayoffsAktobe26611969–117-4813
9Beibarys Atyrau25521848–85-3712

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • TorpedoKulagerpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • Beibarys AtyrauKaragandapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 214%Model's score: 1:45.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →