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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)

Beibarys Atyrau — Karaganda

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Model prediction for 18 November

Beibarys Atyrau10%
Draw in regulation14%
Karaganda76%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Karaganda are clear favourites: 87% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 6.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

  • Karaganda are more dangerous in attack: 4.0 expected goals against 1.7.

Facts

  • League table: Beibarys Atyrau — No. 9, 12 pts; Karaganda — No. 4, 38 pts. A gap of 26 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Beibarys Atyrau 0 wins, Karaganda 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Beibarys Atyrau — Karaganda1.6–4.0
Beibarys Atyrau to win (incl. OT and shootout)13%
Karaganda to win (incl. OT and shootout)87%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Beibarys Atyrau
  • Beibarys Atyrau goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Beibarys Atyrau

  • 29.10away · Kulager2:3
  • 28.10away · Kulager4:3 SO
  • 25.10away · Karaganda0:6
  • 24.10away · Karaganda0:5
  • 20.10Nomad Astana2:3

Karaganda

  • 30.10Almaty6:1
  • 29.10Almaty4:5 SO
  • 25.10Beibarys Atyrau6:0
  • 24.10Beibarys Atyrau5:0
  • 20.10Gornyak Rudny3:2

Head to head

  • 25.10.2026Karaganda — Beibarys Atyrau6:0
  • 24.10.2026Karaganda — Beibarys Atyrau5:0
  • 02.09.2026Karaganda — Beibarys Atyrau3:2 OT
  • 01.09.2026Karaganda — Beibarys Atyrau5:0
  • 16.01.2026Beibarys Atyrau — Karaganda3:4 SO

Full record: 19 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, PlayoffsKokshetau26201597–58+3941
4, PlayoffsKaraganda261745108–60+4838
5, PlayoffsKulager24135687–62+2531
8, PlayoffsAktobe26611969–117-4813
9Beibarys Atyrau25521848–85-3712
10Pavlodar24012331–187-1561

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • TorpedoKulagerpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • AktobeGornyak Rudnypreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 215%Model's score: 2:56.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →