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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Wednesday, 11 November, (UTC+3)

Bars — HC Norilsk

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Model prediction for 11 November

Bars39%
Draw in regulation24%
HC Norilsk37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Bars 50%, HC Norilsk 50% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 27%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.1 and 2.0.

Facts

  • League table: Bars — No. 21, 19 pts; HC Norilsk — No. 2, 32 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
  • Bars: 3 defeats in a row; HC Norilsk: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Bars 2 wins, HC Norilsk 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bars — HC Norilsk2.1–2.0
Bars to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
HC Norilsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)27%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)73%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Bars
  • Bars goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Bars

  • 02.11away · AKM0:3
  • 31.10away · Ryazan1:2
  • 25.10Almetyevsk0:2
  • 23.10CSK VVS3:2
  • 16.10SKA-VMF St. Petersburg0:4

HC Norilsk

  • 03.11Dinamo St. Petersburg3:2 SO
  • 01.11Zvezda Moscow5:2
  • 30.10Khimik5:4
  • 25.10away · Gornyak2:0
  • 23.10away · Chelmet Chelyabinsk2:1

Head to head

  • 23.12.2025Bars — HC Norilsk1:4
  • 23.11.2025HC Norilsk — Bars2:3
  • 29.12.2024HC Norilsk — Bars2:3
  • 21.11.2024Bars — HC Norilsk3:4 OT
  • 12.02.2024Bars — HC Norilsk0:4

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia20170354–26+2834
2, PlayoffsHC Norilsk22152557–47+1032
3, PlayoffsAlmetyevsk19150453–34+1930
20Rubin Tyumen1983843–53-1019
21Bars20911043–59-1619
22Krasnoyarsk21901239–52-1318

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • OrskBuran Voronezhpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
  • KhimikOmskie Kryliapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →