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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Wednesday, 11 November, (UTC+3)

Orsk — Buran Voronezh

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Model prediction for 11 November

Orsk40%
Draw in regulation24%
Buran Voronezh36%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Orsk 52%, Buran Voronezh 48% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 26%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.1 and 2.0.

Facts

  • League table: Orsk — No. 6, 28 pts; Buran Voronezh — No. 11, 24 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Buran Voronezh: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Orsk 2 wins, Buran Voronezh 3.
  • Days of rest before the match: Orsk 8, Buran Voronezh 10.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Orsk — Buran Voronezh2.1–2.0
Orsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Buran Voronezh to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)26%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)74%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Orsk
  • Orsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Orsk

  • 03.11away · Rubin Tyumen4:3 SO
  • 01.11away · Kurgan3:4 OT
  • 30.10away · Omskie Krylia2:3 SO
  • 25.10Dyn. Altay3:4 OT
  • 23.10Metallurg Novokuznetsk2:1

Buran Voronezh

  • 01.11Izhevsk1:2
  • 28.10Olympia1:5
  • 23.10away · Kristall Saratov2:4
  • 21.10away · Dizel4:0
  • 13.10away · HC Yugra1:0

Head to head

  • 22.01.2026Orsk — Buran Voronezh3:1
  • 27.10.2025Buran Voronezh — Orsk1:2
  • 22.01.2025Orsk — Buran Voronezh1:5
  • 27.10.2024Buran Voronezh — Orsk3:2
  • 06.12.2023Orsk — Buran Voronezh3:4 SO

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, PlayoffsPerm19140556–32+2428
6, PlayoffsOrsk19116253–42+1128
7, PlayoffsMetallurg Novokuznetsk21123646–32+1427
10, PlayoffsSKA-VMF St. Petersburg17121448–23+2525
11, PlayoffsBuran Voronezh18112539–33+624
12, PlayoffsHC Yugra19111745–32+1323

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • BarsHC Norilskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
  • KhimikOmskie Kryliapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →